Analysis of changes in Arctic sea ice and its influencing factors during 1979-2022
Sea ice is an important component of the ocean atmosphere interaction system and an indicator of global climate change.In depth analysis of the evolution patterns of sea ice and exploring the correlation between global climate change and sea ice extent are of great theoretical significance for addressing and mitigating global climate change.This paper takes the Arctic sea ice as the research object,deeply analyzes the seasonal,interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of the Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2022,and constructs a Vector AutoRegression Model(VAR)to test the causal relationship between global average air temperature,atmospheric CO2 concentration and Arctic sea ice extent,while also analyzing the degree of influence.The results show that:(a)The Arctic sea ice extent has obvious seasonal variation characteristics,generally reaching its maximum in March and minimum in September,which is mainly related to the annual variation cycle of solar radiation;(b)From 1979 to 2022,the Arctic sea ice extent generally decreases,with an annual variation of 53 000 square kilometers;(c)The Arctic sea ice extent gradually decreases on the interdecadal scale,from 2000 to 2009,the Arctic sea ice extent decreased the most than that of the last decade,by 670 000 square kilometers;(d)Both global average air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration have a significant impact on the Arctic sea ice extent changes;(e)Both global average air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration have a significant negative correlation with the Arctic sea ice extent,with correlation coefficients of-0.92 and-0.95,respectively.
Arctic sea ice extentCO2 concentrationaverage air temperatureglobal climate change
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