Analysis and forecasting research on influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province
Climate change caused by carbon emissions is a key global concern,and as agriculture is one of the main sources of greenhouse gases,accurate measurement and prediction of carbon emissions from agriculture is of great significance in achieving the dual-carbon target.This paper adopts the emission factor method to measure agricultural carbon emissions,uses the STIRPAT extended model to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the carbon emission influencing factors,and constructs the SVR model to predict the total amount of carbon emissions from 2022 to 2035.The results show that the total agricultural carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province show a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2021,and livestock manure fermentation makes the largest contribution to agricultural carbon emissions,accounting for 45.2％;among the influencing factors,cropping structure,urbanisation rate and prosperity level are the carbon-increasing factors,and population size and livestock size are the carbon-suppressing factors.In the seven prediction scenarios from 2022 to 2035,agricultural carbon emissions under the comprehensive optimization scenario decrease significantly by 35.2％compared with 2021,while the other six scenarios can provide references for reducing agricultural carbon emissions in different directions.
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