Potential and Source Structure of Agricultural Imports in China:An Empirical Study of Import Diversification Strategy
Expanding the import of agricultural products will not only help ensure the supply of ag-ricultural products in China,but also help to upgrade the agricultural industry and improve the ability of sustainable development.Therefore,it is particularly important to scientifically measure the potential of agricultural imports.Based on the world bilateral trade data from 1995 to 2019,a standardized index of import potential was constructed to measure and analyze the potential and distribution characteristics of agricultural imports,and the trade margin method was used to discuss the source structure of future agri-cultural imports.The results show that:1)In terms of total scale,agricultural imports were insufficient before China's accession to the WTO,increased after accession,and showed significant excessive im-ports starting from 2009;2)From the perspective of spatial distribution,Chinese agricultural imports ex-cessively from the EU,NAFTA,South America and other countries(region),moderately from ASEAN,insufficiently from India and the republic of Korea,thus the key source area for future agricul-tural imports will be within Asia;3)From the perspective of product distribution,there is excessive im-port of animal products,moderate import of food processing products,and insufficient import of fruits and vegetables;4)From the perspective of source structure,there is excessive quantity of agricultural im-ports,moderate variety,and insufficient import prices.It is proposed to adhere to the security strategy of"relying on domestic supply with moderate import adjustments"and diversifying agricultural imports.Moreover,it is also important to implement country-specific management of agricultural imports and re-gional trade strategies,rationally treat and implement classification of agricultural imports by variety,ac-tively adjust the structure of import sources and reduce the dependence on import quantity,attach impor-tance to the import of high-quality,high-value-added agricultural products,and promote the transforma-tion of the growth mode of agricultural imports.
potential of agricultural importsspatial distributionproduct distributiondiversified importsimport marginal potential
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
