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生猪产业规模化发展与碳排放:促进还是抑制?

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在使用生命周期法测算2007-2020年省际生猪碳排放的基础上,系统考察了生猪产业规模化发展对生猪碳排放的影响与作用机制.结果表明:第一,生猪碳排放呈现出明显的空间溢出效应和聚集效应,即一个地区的生猪碳排放与周边地区密切相关;第二,生猪产业规模化发展对生猪碳排放呈现显著的"倒U型"关系,规模化发展对生猪碳排放的影响存在显著的门槛效应,当生猪产业规模化率保持在45.1%以上时,规模化发展可有效促进生猪产业碳减排;第三,小规模生猪养殖占比与生猪碳排放是显著的单调递增关系,而中规模和大规模生猪养殖占比与生猪碳排放之间表现显著的"倒U"型关系;第四,聚集效应和技术进步效应是生猪产业规模化发展影响生猪碳排放的主要作用途径.建议合理规划生猪产业的空间布局,发展适度规模养殖,发挥技术进步的推动作用,稳妥实现生猪产业碳减排与规模化发展的"双赢"目标.
Scale Development of the Swine Industry and Carbon Emissions:Facilitator or Inhibitor?
Employing the life cycle methodology to compute provincial carbon emissions from swine spanning from 2007 to 2020,we methodically investigated the ramifications and mechanisms of scale de-velopment in the swine industry on carbon emissions.Our inquiry revealed that carbon emissions from swine manifest significant spillover effects and aggregation effects,signifying a close correlation between carbon emissions from swine within a given area and those in the neighboring regions.Additionally,the scale development of the swine industry demonstrates a pronounced"inverted U-shaped"association with carbon emissions from swine,denoting a substantial threshold impact of scale development on car-bon emissions from swine.When the scale rate of the swine industry remains at 45.1%or above,scale development can effectively facilitate the reduction of carbon emissions within the industry.Moreover,there is a significant monotonically increasing relationship between the proportion of small-scale swine farming and carbon emissions from swine,whereas the proportion of medium and large-scale swine farm-ing exhibit a notable inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions from swine.Finally,aggrega-tion effects and technological advancements serve as the primary conduits through which the scale devel-opment of the swine industry influences carbon emissions from swine.It is advisable to meticulously de-sign the spatial arrangement of the swine industry,develop moderate-scale farming,capitalize on techno-logical advancements to instigate change,and judiciously attain the mutually beneficial objective of miti-gating carbon emissions while fostering scale development in the swine industry.

carbon emissions from swinescale development of pig industryspatial seemingly un-related regression(SUR)modelsthreshold effect

梁耀文、王明利

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中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081

中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083

生猪碳排放 生猪产业规模化 空间SUR模型 门槛效应

国家自然科学基金重点项目中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目

72033009ASTIP-IAED-2023-01

2024

华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)
华中农业大学

华中农业大学学报(社会科学版)

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.704
ISSN:1008-3456
年,卷(期):2024.(4)
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