首页|基于GTWR模型的长江中游城市群碳排放时空异质性分析

基于GTWR模型的长江中游城市群碳排放时空异质性分析

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在双碳背景下,研究中部地区城市群碳排放时空异质性特征对于促进区域低碳发展具有重要意义.该文以长江中游城市群为研究对象,选取2011-2020年的面板数据,从碳排放量、人均碳排放和地均碳排放分析碳排放的时空异质特征;运用GTWR模型探究案例区碳排放之影响因素及其时空异质性.结果表明:1)2011-2020年长江中游城市群碳排放总量不断增长,但增速趋缓.排放量由98 152.00万t增长至132 226.12万t,增长率由8.23%减缓至4.85%;2)长江中游城市群碳排放具有很强的空间异质性,碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量总体均呈现为武汉城市圈>环长株潭城市群>环鄱阳湖城市群,其中环鄱阳湖城市群与前两者差异尤为显著;3)人口总量、经济发展水平、工业结构、能源消耗强度等因素对地区碳排放具有显著的正向促进作用,作用强度同样呈现武汉城市圈>环长株潭城市群>环鄱阳湖城市群的特征.
Analysis of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions in Middle Yangtze River city cluster based on GTWR model
In alignment with the dual carbon goals,investigating the temporal and spatial variability of carbon emissions in urban conglomerations within Central China is vital for supporting regional low-carbon development.This research,concentrating on Middle Yangtze River city cluster,employed panel data from 2011 to 2020 to analyze the temporal and spatial differences in carbon emissions,including total emissions,per capita emissions,and emissions per unit area.The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model was performed to analyze the determinants of carbon emissions and their variability throughout time as well as space in the research area.Key discoveries are shown as follows.1)A consistent rise in total carbon emissions from 98 152 000 tin 2011 to 132 226 120 tin 2020 was observed,with a decrease in growth rate from 8.23%to 4.85%.2)There is a substantial spatial heterogeneity in carbon emissions within the Yangtze River Middle city cluster.The total,per capita,and area-specific carbon emissions exhibits the pattern of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration>Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration>Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration,with an especially noticeable divergence between the Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration and the others.3)Factors such as total population,economic development level,industrial composition,and energy consumption intensity significantly influenced regional carbon emissions,reflecting the spatial order of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration>Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration>Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration.

Middle Yangtze River city clustercarbon emissionsspatial and temporal heterogeneityGTWR model

张自豪、余斌、郭新伟、胡梦姗、何立翔

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华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430079

湖北省发展和改革委员会/华中师范大学武汉城市圈研究院,武汉 430079

信阳师范大学地理科学学院,河南信阳 464000

贵州财经大学管理科学与工程学院,贵阳 550025

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长江中游城市群 碳排放 时空异质性 GTWR模型

国家自然科学基金

42271227

2024

华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)
华中师范大学

华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.512
ISSN:1000-1190
年,卷(期):2024.58(3)