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2024年2月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

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目的 评估2024年2月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险.方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估.结果 预计2024年2月突发公共卫生事件数可能较2024年1月有所减少,以新型冠状病毒感染、流行性感冒(流感)等多种呼吸道传染病为主.我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情持续上升,预计2-3月可能出现相对高发期,新型冠状病毒JN.1变异株已成为主要流行毒株.流感活动呈下降趋势,预计2月将持续下降至较低水平.1月浙江省报告1例人季节性H3N2和禽H10N5混合感染病例,H10N5病毒基因序列分析为禽源性,公共卫生风险低.新疆维吾尔自治区(新疆)乌什县地震灾区需继续做好呼吸道传染病监测防控等工作.结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对流感、人感染禽流感和新疆乌什县地震灾后公共卫生风险予以一般关注.
Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,February 2024
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in February 2024.Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases,the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in February 2024 would be lower than that in January 2024.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as respiratory infectious diseases including COVID-19 and influenza.The national epidemic of COVID-19 in China would continue to rise,with a relatively high incidence expected in February and March.JN.1 variant of COVID-19 has become the dominant epidemic strain.Influenza epidemics are on the decline,and the downward trend would keep on till a low level in February.In January,a case of mixed infection of seasonal H3N2 and avian H10N5 viruses was reported in Zhejiang province.The H10N5 virus gene sequence analysis showed that the virus was avian origin,which signified low public health risk.Relevant measures should be taken on respiratory infectious diseases monitoring and prevention and control in Wushi county,the earthquake-stricken area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19,and general attention should be paid to influenza,human infection with avian influenza virus,and public health risks after the earthquake in Wushi county of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Public health emergencyCommunicable disease outbreakRisk assessment

任婧寰、秦颖、陈操、王大燕、彭质斌、李超、王希江、孔庆福、施国庆、向妮娟、涂文校

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中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206

中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206

中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206

新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心,新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

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突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估

2024

疾病监测
中国疾病预防控制中心

疾病监测

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.567
ISSN:1003-9961
年,卷(期):2024.39(2)
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