摘要
目的 评估2024年5月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险.方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估.结果 预计2024年5月突发公共卫生事件数可能与4月持平,仍以传染病类事件为主.近期境内新型冠状病毒JN.1变异株疫情继续呈下降趋势.发热伴血小板减少综合征仍以既往高发省份报告为主.百日咳继续在较高水平传播.猩红热报告病例数可能将于5月下旬至6月上旬达到春季顶峰.手足口病发病水平继续上升.麻疹报告发病率可能较2023年升高.人感染禽流感仍呈散发状态.结论 对新型冠状病毒KP.2变异株疫情进展、发热伴血小板减少综合征、百日咳、猩红热、手足口病、麻疹、人感染禽流感予以关注.
Abstract
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in May 2024.Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases,the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in May 2024 would be at the same level as that in April 2024.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases.Recently,the domestic epidemic of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)variant JN.1 have shown a downward trend.Cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)remain primarily reported from historically high-incidence provinces.Pertussis continues to spread at a relatively high level.The number of reported cases of scarlet fever is expected to peak in late May to early June during the spring season.Currently,the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)continues to rise.The reported incidence of measles may increase compared to 2023.Human infections with avian influenza remain sporadic.Conclusion Attention should be paid to the KP.2 variant of COVID-19,SFTS,pertussis,scarlet fever,HFMD,measles,and human infections with avian influenza.
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