首页|2013-2022年山东省胶东地区发热伴血小板减少综合征发病与气象相关因素分析

2013-2022年山东省胶东地区发热伴血小板减少综合征发病与气象相关因素分析

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目的 探究气象因素对山东省胶东地区发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)发病的影响,为SFTS科学防控提供参考.方法 采用Quasi-Possion回归分析青岛、烟台、威海地区SFTS的发病与气象因素的关系,选择差异具有统计学意义的气象因素纳入分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),构建各城市气象因素与SFTS发病的非线性暴露-反应关系,相对危险度(RR)及95%置信区间(CI)为衡量指标.同时,将估计参数纳入多元Meta模型,得到气象因素对SFTS发病的综合效应.结果 胶东地区SFTS发病存在明显的季节性和周期性,多数在6-9月发病;周平均温度高于13.65℃时,SFTS发病人数增多(RR=11.34,95%CI:8.37~15.70);周平均相对湿度高于66.83%时,SFTS发病人数增多(RR=1.19,95%CI:1.02~1.39);周平均气压高于1 011.37 hPa时,SFTS发病人数降低(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.36~0.84);周平均风速高于3.27 m/s时,SFTS发病人数降低(RR=0.66,95%CI:0.58~0.75);温度与SFTS存在非线性的累积和滞后效应,低温(-0.88℃和3.92℃)降低发病风险,高温(22.00℃和26.35℃)增加发病风险.结论 温度、相对湿度、气压、风速可能是胶东地区SFTS发病的影响因素,温度对SFTS发病存在非线性的滞后效应.
Analysis on relationship between severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and meteorological factors in Jiaodong area,Shandong,2013-2022
Objective To study the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Jiaodong area,Shandong province,and provide reference for the effective prevention and control of SFTS.Methods Quasi-Possion regression was used to analyze the relationship between the incidence of SFTS and meteorological factors in Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai,and meteorological factors with significant difference were selected to be included in the distributed lag non-linear models(DLNM),and a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of SFTS was established for Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai,respectively.The relative risk(RR)and 95%confidence interval(CI)were used as indicators.Meanwhile,the estimated parameters were incorporated into the multivariate meta-model to obtain the comprehensive effects of meteorological factors on SFTS.Results Obvious seasonality and cyclicity of SFTS incidence in Jiaodong were observed.Most of the cases occurred from June to September.When the weekly average temperature was higher than 13.65 ℃,the incidence of SFTS increased(RR=11.34,95%CI:8.37-15.70).When the weekly average relative humidity was higher than 66.83%,the incidence of SFTS increased(RR=1.19,95%CI:1.02-1.39).When the average air pressure was above 1011.37hPa,the incidence of SFTS decreased(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.36-0.84).When the average weekly wind speed was above 3.27 m/s,the incidence of SFTS decreased(RR=0.66,95%CI:0.58-0.75).There were nonlinear cumulative and lag effects of temperature on the incidence of SFTS:low temperature(-0.88 ℃ and 3.92 ℃)reduced the risk for SFTS,and high temperature(22.00 ℃ and 26.35 ℃)increased the risk for SFTS.Conclusion In Jiaodong,temperature,relative humidity,air pressure and wind speed were possible factors influencing the incidence of SFTS,and temperature had non-linear lag effect on the incidence of SFTS.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndromeMeteorological factorInfluencing factorDistributed lag non-linear modelMultivariate meta model

侯良宇、张晓梅、张玉薇、段青、赵连祥、吴善正、马伟、姜晓林

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山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院,山东济南 250012

山东省疾病预防控制中心,山东济南 250014

滨州医学院公共卫生学院,山东烟台 264003

发热伴血小板减少综合征 气象因素 影响因素 分布滞后非线性模型 多元Meta模型

山东省疾病预防控制中心青年创新基金山东省医药卫生科技发展计划

QC-2022-03202201061043

2024

疾病监测
中国疾病预防控制中心

疾病监测

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.567
ISSN:1003-9961
年,卷(期):2024.39(5)