Prediction of incidence of influenza-like illness in Jiaxing of Zhejiang based on Prophet model
Objective To predict and evaluate the incidence trend of influenza-like illness(ILI)in Jiaxing of Zhejiang by using Prophet model and provide new ideas and methods for influenza prevention and control and sentinel hospital surveillance.Methods A Prophet model was constructed using the"forecast"and"prophet"packages in software R 4.2.2 to fit and predict the annual average proportion of ILI outpatient visits in total outpatient and emergency visits(ILI％)by using the surveillance data from sentinel hospitals for influenza in Jiaxing,Zhejiang province,from 2013 to 2022.Results From 2013 to 2022,the average annual ILI％was 2.97％ in sentinel hospitals in Jiaxing.The overall ILI％showed fluctuating patterns,with annual peak occurring during winte spring and a gradual decline thereafter.The fitting and prediction results of the Prophet model indicated that the fitted ILI％showed an upward trend in sentinel hospitals in Jiaxing from 2013 to 2021,and the average error rate of ILI％prediction was-16.73％for 2022.The ILI％fitted with surveillance data from national level sentinel hospitals first increased then decreased,with the average error rate of ILI％prediction as-14.85％for 2022,and all the prediction results were within the 95％confidence interval.Conclusion The Prophet model fitting and prediction has relatively low fitting and prediction error and show good effects,which can be used for the prediction of ILI incidence.
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