2024年9月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估
Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,September 2024
孙大鹏 1秦颖 2白文清 3刘凤凤 2牟笛 2黎丹 3周兴余 4孔庆福 3施国庆 3向妮娟 3涂文校 3孟玲3
作者信息
- 1. 中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目,北京 100050;中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206
- 2. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206
- 3. 中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京 102206
- 4. 四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都 610041
- 折叠
摘要
目的 评估2024年9月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险.方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估.结果 2024年9月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较8月有所上升,以传染病类事件为主.近期我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情已达峰值并呈下降趋势,猴痘短期内仍将呈低水平传播态势,散在鼠疫、霍乱病例仍可能发生,登革热疫情已进入高峰季节;国外拉沙热和奥罗普切热疫情仍将持续,但输入我国并引起持续传播的风险低.结论 对新型冠状病毒感染、猴痘、鼠疫、霍乱、登革热、拉沙热和奥罗普切热等传染病予以关注.
Abstract
Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in September 2024.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is anticipated that September 2024 would see a rise in the number of public health emergencies,with infectious disease incidents predominating.The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in China has reached its peak and is showing a downward trend.Mpox will continue to spread at a low level in the short term.The sporadic cases of plague and cholera would still be possible to occur.The dengue fever has entered its peak season.The lassa fever and oropuche fever would still prevail abroad,but the risk of importation into China and causing sustained transmission is relatively low.Conclusion Attention should be paid to COVID-19,mpox,plague,cholera,dengue fever,lassa fever,oropouche fever.
关键词
突发公共卫生事件/传染病疫情/风险评估Key words
Public health emergency/Communicable disease outbreak/Risk assessment引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据