首页|基于蒙特卡洛的串联系统可用度计算方法

基于蒙特卡洛的串联系统可用度计算方法

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针对一类有多台同类型多部件串联装备系统,提出了基于蒙特卡洛仿真方法考虑可修备件数量影响的舰艇装备系统可用度的计算模型.通过分析装备系统的构型特点,在系统维度建立系统函数,在部件维度构建可修部件与备件之间的故障维修逻辑的马尔可夫状态转移过程,计算其平稳分布的稳态概率.在此基础上,最后通过数值算例,利用解析计算和蒙特卡洛仿真方法获得了不同备件方案下的系统可用度,将仿真结果与解析结果对比验证该模型的正确性和有效性.
A Calculation Method for the Availability of Series System Based on Monte-Carlo Method
Aiming at a class of large equipment series system with multiple units of the same type and multiple components,a calculation model of ship equipment system availability based on Monte-Carlo simulation method is proposed to consider the influ-ence of repairable spare parts number.By analyzing the configuration characteristics of the equipment system dimension,and the Markov state transition process of fault maintenance logic between the repairable parts and the spare parts is constructed in the com-ponent dimension,and the steady-state probability of its stable distribution is calculated.Finally,through numerical examples,the system availability under different spare parts schemes is obtained by analytical calculation and Monte-Carlo simulation methods.The correctness and effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the simulation results with the analytical results.

series systemMarkovavailabilityrepairable spare partsMonte-Carlo

朱兴动、由洪鹏、范加利、王正

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海军航空大学 烟台 264000

海军航空大学青岛校区 青岛 266041

串联系统 马尔可夫 可用度 可修备件 蒙特卡洛

2024

舰船电子工程
中国船舶重工集团公司第709研究所 中国造船工程学会 电子技术学术委员会

舰船电子工程

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.243
ISSN:1627-9730
年,卷(期):2024.44(6)
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