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宫颈癌术后患者下肢淋巴水肿危险因素分析及预测模型构建

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目的 构建宫颈癌术后患者下肢淋巴水肿(lower limb lymphedema,LLL)风险预测模型,并验证其预测性能,为医护人员早期识别LLL发生风险提供依据。方法 回顾性选取2010-2020年某院759例宫颈癌术后患者为研究对象,通过单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析筛选危险因素,建立Bayes判别分析及列线图模型;受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)和曲线下面积(area undercurve,AUC)评估模型预测能力,敏感度和特异度评估模型预测价值。结果 Bayes判别分析和列线图模型的AUC分别为91。30%、95。00%,敏感度分别为83。05%、87。60%,特异度分别为85。02%、90。01%。结论 构建的宫颈癌术后LLL风险预测列线图模型预测性能较好,能为临床识别高风险患者提供参考。
Analysis of Risk Factors for Lower Extremity Lymphedema after Cervical Cancer Surgery and Construction of a Prediction Model
Objective To construct a risk prediction model of lower limb lymphedema(LLL)after cervical cancer surgery and validate its prediction performance,so as to provide a basis for healthcare workers to recognize the risk of LLL at an early stage.Methods A selection of 759 postoperative cervical cancer pa-tients in a hospital from 2010 to 2020 were retrospectively selected as the study subjects,and the risk fac-tors were screened by unifactorial and multifactorial logistic regression analyses,and Bayes discriminant analysis and nomogram models were established;the predictive ability of the model was assessed by the re-ceiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)of the subjects and the area undercurve(AUC),and the predic-tive value of the model was assessed by the sensitivity and the specificity.Results The AUC for the Bayes discriminant analysis and the nomogram model was 91.30%and 95.00%,the sensitivity was 83.05%and 87.60%,and the specificity was 85.02%and 90.01%.Conclusions The constructed column-line graph mod-el for predicting the risk of LLL after cervical cancer surgery has good predictive performance and can pro-vide a reference for the clinical identification of high-risk patients.

cervical cancerlower limb lymphoedemarisk predictionBayesian discriminant analysisnomogram

周颖、刘高明、张凤、赵国瑞

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湖南中医药大学护理学院,湖南长沙 410208

湖南省肿瘤医院护理部,湖南长沙 410013

中南大学湘雅护理学院,湖南长沙 410083

宫颈癌 下肢淋巴水肿 风险预测 Bayes判别分析 列线图

国家自然科学基金项目湖南省2023度卫生健康适宜技术推广项目湖南省中医药科研课题项目

82003313202319010063B2023071

2024

军事护理
第二军医大学

军事护理

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.628
ISSN:2097-1826
年,卷(期):2024.41(7)
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