Construction and Validation of a Nomogram Risk Prediction Model for Threatened Miscarriage in Pregnant Women
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of threatened miscarriage in pregnant women,and to construct and validate a prediction model.Methods Convenient sampling was used to select 204 pregnant women with obstetric treatment at a tertiary A hospital in Lanzhou,Gansu Province from January 2021 to December 2022 as the subjects,who were divided into the threatened miscarriage group(103 cases)and the control group(101 cases)accord-ing to the occurrence of threatened miscarriage.Logistic regression was applied to analyze the influencing factors of threatened miscarriage in pregnant women and construct a nomogram risk prediction model.The goodness of fit and predictive performance of the model were evaluated using the Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test,subject working characteristic curve,area under the curve,and calibration curve.Bootstrap sampling was used for internal validation of the model.Results Place of residence,low physical activity,6-9w gestational sac,5-8 w human chorionic gonadotropin were independent influencing factors for threatened miscarriage in pregnant women.The Hosmer Lemeshow test was performed on the constructed nomogram risk prediction model,and the results showed that x2=6.118,P=0.634.The areas under the curve of the four influencing factors were as follows:low exercise=0.742,place of residence=0.707,gestational sac for 6-9 w=0.705,and human chorionic gonadotropin for 5-8 w=0.757.The bootstrap sampling inter-nal validation results indicated that the model had good resolution and high compliance.Conclusions With its good pre-dictive effect,the nomogram risk prediction model can provide references for the screening of the high-risk group.
万方数据
维普
