INTERVAL COMBINATION FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON GENERALIZED PROJECTION MEASURE
The core of interval combined forecasting model is to determine the weight of each single forecasting method.Since vector projection is a comprehensive measure,which can reflect both the distance and angle between two vector index objects,this paper proposes a new vector standardized projection measure formula.On the basis of vector standardized projection measure formula,the concept of interval number vector standardized projection measure is defined to describe the proximity of two interval number vectors.Two new interval type combination prediction models based on projection measure are constructed by taking the standardized projection measure of combination prediction interval number sequence and actual interval number sequence as the optimization criteria.Two examples are analyzed:(1)The effectiveness of the combined forecasting model built in this paper is verified by comparing the results of the combined forecasting methods with those of the existing literature;(2)The fitting and forecasting model of China's 2010-2022 wind power generation series shows that the combined forecasting model built in this paper has better fitting and forecasting effect,and has certain feasibility and practicability.
interval numberstandardized projectioncombination modelwind power generationforecast
万方数据
