首页|连镇铁路对沿线中小城市发展的影响——以淮安为例

连镇铁路对沿线中小城市发展的影响——以淮安为例

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连镇铁路开通后,淮安相对客运汽车和普通火车运输方式时间效率提高了 61.4%和80.3%.根据旅行时间价值模型计算,未来五年沿线城市节约的旅行时间价值将从198709.7万元增加到250866.4万元.两者表明,连镇铁路开通有益于沿线城市降低时间成本,加强区域联系和协作.但对近年来户籍人口和常住人口分析,连镇铁路开通后,沿线城市户籍人口除南京外出现了不同程度的下降.特别是在铁路开通一年后,淮安常住人口出现-7.63%下降,南京常住人口出现9.58%上升.百度地图"迁徙平台"数据显示,2020-2022年南京是淮安人口主要迁出地.短期数据显示,连镇铁路开通,不仅给淮安经济发展带来了正面作用,负面效应也亟须面对解决.为此,针对淮安提出"错位竞争、协调发展,提升内涵,苦练内功,发展旅游,打造品牌"应对策略.
The Impact of Lianzhen Railway on the Development of Small and Medium-sized Cities along the Line——Taking Huai'an as an Example
After the opening of Lianzhen Railway,the time efficiency of Huai'an compared to passenger cars and ordinary trains has increased by 61.4%and 80.3%,respectively.According to the travel time value model,the travel time value saved by cities along the route in the next five years will increase from 1987.097 million yuan to 2508.664 million yuan.Both indicate that the opening of the Lianzhen Railway is beneficial for cities along the route to reduce time costs,strengthen regional connections and cooperation.How-ever,based on the analysis of registered residence population and permanent population in recent years,after the opening of Lianzhen Railway,the registered residence population of cities along the line has declined to varying degrees except Nanjing.Especially one year after the railway was opened,the permanent population of Huai'an decreased by 7.63%,while the permanent population of Nan-jing increased by 9.58%.According to data from Baidu Maps'Migration Platform,Nanjing was the main place of population migration in Huai'an from 2020 to 2022.Short term data shows that the opening of the Lianzhen Railway has not only brought positive effects to the economic development of Huai'an,but also urgently needs to address the negative effects.To this end,a response strategy has been proposed for Huai'an,which includes"differentiated competition,coordinated development,enhancing connotation,honing in-ternal strength,developing tourism,and building a brand".

Lianzhen RailwayHuai'anSpatial accessibilityTravel time valuePopulation changes

杨淡月、谢珺瑶

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江苏电子信息职业学院,江苏 淮安 223303

淮安市人民政府 办公室,江苏 淮安 223300

连镇铁路 淮安 空间可达性 旅行时间价值 人口变化

2025

江苏商论
江苏省商业经济研究所 江苏省商业经济学会

江苏商论

影响因子:0.369
ISSN:1009-0061
年,卷(期):2025.(1)