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突发公共卫生事件下投资者情绪对股票市场的影响研究

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2019年12月底,由美国暴发的新冠疫情传入中国,疫情对全球、全国的经济造成了显著影响,全球股市也进入寒冬.股市是经济的晴雨表,在中国的股票市场中,有超过九成的投资者属于个人投资者,个人投资者的情绪反映与股票市场的涨跌息息相关.基于此,论文选取换手率、成交量、腾落比例、融资融券余额和百度搜索指数这5个单项指标通过主成分分析法建立投资者情绪综合指标.同时选取相关指标构建疫情综合指标,并通过VAR模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法考察二者与股票收益率之间的关系,同时,提出建议.
Research on the Impact of Investor Sentiment on the Stock Market under Sudden Public Health Emergencies
At the end of December 2019,the COVID-19 broke out in the United States and spread to China.The epidemic had a sig-nificant impact on the global and national economy,and the global stock market also entered the cold winter.The stock market is a barometer of the economy.In China's stock market,over 90%of investors are individual investors,and the emotional reactions of in-dividual investors are closely related to the rise and fall of the stock market.Based on this,the paper selects five individual indicators including turnover rate,trading volume,turnover ratio,margin trading balance,and Baidu search index to establish a comprehensive indicator of investor sentiment through principal component analysis.Simultaneously selecting relevant indicators to construct a com-prehensive index of the epidemic,and examining the relationship between the two and stock returns through VAR models,Granger causality tests,impulse response analysis,variance decomposition,and other methods.Suggestions are also proposed.

impact eventInvestor sentimentPrincipal component analysisVARimpulse response

于慧佳

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昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南 昆明 650504

冲击事件 投资者情绪 主成分分析 VAR 脉冲响应

2025

江苏商论
江苏省商业经济研究所 江苏省商业经济学会

江苏商论

影响因子:0.369
ISSN:1009-0061
年,卷(期):2025.(1)