Tax Administration,Tax Revenue and the Debt of Local Government Financing Vehicles
In recent years,local government debt has rapidly increased in response to economic downturns,while fiscal revenue growth has remained weak,causing debt risks in certain regions to become more pronounced and threatening high-quality economic development.According to statistical data,by the end of 2015,the national local government debt ratio was only 23.6％,with a comprehensive debt ratio of 89.2％.By 2023,these figures had risen to 32.3％and 121.9％,respectively.The average annual growth of local government debt exceeded the growth of GDP during the same period by 2.4 times.On the other hand,from 2016 to 2023,national tax cuts and fee reductions exceeded 14 trillion yuan,while the average annual growth rate of tax revenue during the same period was only 4.89％.Therefore,it is critical to establish a long-term mechanism that stabilizes local fiscal revenue while controlling excessive debt accumulation,ultimately supporting debt risk mitigation alongside stable economic development.This paper thus utilizes data from local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)spanning 2006 to 2021 and,through a quasi-natural experiment involving the implementation of the Golden Tax Project Ⅲ,to empirically examine the impact of tax administration on tax revenue and LGFV debt.The study explores the important role tax administration plays in balancing debt and fiscal revenue.The results indicate that the Golden Tax Project Ⅲ increased tax revenue and curbed the excessive growth of LGFV debt through a tax-debt substitution effect.Meanwhile,it further suppressed debt expansion by alleviating information asymmetry between banks and enterprises and improving the internal governance of non-platform companies,thereby crowding out credit to financing platforms.This paper also compares the roles of tax administration and tax rate adjustments in LGFV debt,revealing a possible asymmetric relationship between tax revenue and debt.Based on these findings,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations.First,the next phase of fiscal and tax reforms should prioritize deepen tax administration improvements,with a focus on accelerating digital and intelligent upgrades to tax management.This will help stabilize expectations,reduce risks,and support sustainable development.Second,to effectively prevent and address local debt risks,efforts should be made to strengthen financial services for the real economy,correct structural imbalances in credit allocation within financial markets,and increase the share of direct financing for enterprises.Finally,risk prevention and mitigation strategies should account for regional variations in institutional capacity and governance,with initiatives aimed at improving the local institutional environment and enhancing government governance.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
