The Impact of the Combined Negative Growth of China's Labor Force and the Increase in the Elderly Population on Residents'Income Growth and Policy Choices
From the"14th Five-Year Plan"period to 2035,the negative growth of the labor force and the increase in the elderly population in China will overlap.From the perspective of residents'income distribution,it is of great practical significance to study how much impact the overlap of the negative growth of the labor force and the total increase in the elderly population will have on residents'income and what optimization strategies should be adopted.Based on the real background of the negative growth of the labor force and the increase of the elderly population,a general equilibrium overlapping generations model that is adapted to the negative growth of the labor force and the accelerated growth of the elderly population is extracted.Through equilibrium analysis and numerical simulation for quantitative analysis,the impact of the negative growth of the labor force and the accelerated growth of the elderly population on the growth of residents'income is expounded theoretically.In terms of development strategies,based on the basic principles of maintaining the growth of residents'income without reduction and intergenerational sharing of high income,from the two perspectives of adjusting the pension contribution rate and delaying the retirement age,the corresponding strategies for maintaining the level of residents'income without reduction and stabilizing the growth expectations of residents'income are proposed and tested.The research findings are as follows:Simulating the future changes in the quantity of the labor force and the elderly population based on various scenario prediction parameters,the results show that in the future,the superposition of the negative growth of the labor force and the total growth of the elderly population will jointly act on pensions and wage incomes.This demographic transition will lead to different degrees of slowdown in the growth of residents'pensions and wage incomes.In the long run,the reduction in labor income will affect people's work enthusiasm.Moreover,if labor income continues to decline,it may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market.On the other hand,the increase in pension income may pose a challenge to the sustainability of the social security system.If the growth rate of pension income exceeds that of contribution income,it may lead to increased pressure on the social security fund,further affecting the stable operation of the economy and hindering income growth.By choosing combinations of basic old-age insurance and enterprise annuity contribution rates and paths such as gradually and elastically delaying the retirement age,it is possible to deal with the impact of changes in population quantity on the growth of residents'incomes.
negative labor force growthincreasing elderly populationgrowth of residents'incomepolicy choice
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