Direct air capture(DAC)technology,which captures carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere,is a crucial tool in combating climate change.To quantitatively assess and predict the cost of DAC technology in China,this paper employs a top-down engineering economic analysis approach to develop a DAC cost analysis and prediction model.The study examines two types of DAC technologies:liquid absorption DAC(L-DAC)and solid adsorption DAC(S-DAC).The costs of DAC under different scenarios of deployment scale,technological pathways,and energy types are investigated.The results indicate that the future deployment scale is a key factor influencing DAC costs.By 2060,if the DAC deployment in China is limited to 30 million tons of CO2 per year,the cost of carbon removal for L-DAC and S-DAC will range from 1 037 to 1 838 yuan/t and 869 to 922 yuan/t,respectively.If the deployment scale reaches 300 million tons of CO2 per year,the costs will decrease to 729-1 237 yuan/t and 543-580 yuan/t,respectively.With a deployment scale of 600 million tons of CO2 per year,the costs will further drop to 655-1 102 yuan/t and 472-505 yuan/t,respectively.Energy-related carbon emissions reduce the efficiency of CO2 removal from the air by DAC,leading to an increase in the carbon removal cost.When using non-fossil energy sources such as nuclear,photovoltaic,wind,and hydro power,the DAC carbon removal cost slightly increases over the capture cost;however,when using grid electricity or purchased heat,the increase is more significant.By 2060,photovoltaic energy supply presents a more cost-effective option compared to other energy sources.Based on these findings,it is recommended to implement large-scale DAC demonstration projects as soon as possible and gradually expand the application scale of DAC to reduce costs through economies of scale and engineering optimization.It is also advised that DAC plants select non-fossil energy sources according to local conditions to reduce carbon removal costs.
维普
万方数据
