首页|人口老龄化如何影响生育率?——基于预期寿命延长和养老保险缴费率调整视角

人口老龄化如何影响生育率?——基于预期寿命延长和养老保险缴费率调整视角

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人口老龄化导致的预期寿命增长和养老保险缴费率调整对生育率具有重要影响,本文通过建立内生生育率的一般均衡世代交叠模型和参数校准对此进行了研究,并分析了二者对经济增长和居民福利的影响.研究表明:预期寿命增长对生育率的影响受代表性消费者子代偏好程度的影响,当子代偏好程度较低时,预期寿命增长有助于提高生育率,反之则可能降低生育率;养老保险缴费率提高则始终会降低生育率.通过影响内生生育率,预期寿命增长几乎必然会使未来劳均产出上升,居民福利水平上升;养老保险缴费率提高则会使下期劳均产出下降,在可行费率范围内也会使居民福利水平下降.在人口老龄化难以逆转的时代背景下,本文的研究为预期寿命和养老保险缴费率变化如何影响生育率提供了理论基础,为生育率促进政策的制定提供了模型参考.
How Population Aging Influences Fertility Rate?Based on the Perspective of Life Expectancy Increasing and Adjusting Pension Insurance Contribution Rate
Theoretically,the increase in life expectancy and the adjustment of pension insurance contribution rate resulting from population aging greatly influence fertility rate.This paper studies this topic by building a general equilibrium OLG model with endogenous fertility rate and parameter calibration,and analyzes their influence on economic growth and residents'welfare.Results show that:the impact of life expectancy increase on fertility rate is affected by the preference level of representative consumer offspring.If the degree of preference for offspring is lower than some particular level,the increase in life expectancy will increase fertility rate;otherwise,it would result in a decrease in fertility rate.The increase in pension insurance contribution rate would decrease fertility rate.Based on the influence on fertility rate,the increase in life expectancy almost surely would increase output per labor and residents'welfare;and the increase in pension insurance contribution rate would result in a decrease in output per labor and the residents'welfare within the feasible contribution rate.This work provides a theoretical basis for the impact mechanism of life expectancy growth and pension insurance contribution rate adjustment on fertility rate in the era of population aging and a model reference for fertility rate promotion policies.

Population AgingFertility RatePension Insurance Contribution RateLife Expectancy

王博娟、黄志国、陈孝伟

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南开大学金融学院,300350

浙江大学科学技术研究院博士后工作站,310053

人口老龄化 生育率 养老保险缴费率 预期寿命

2024

经济评论
武汉大学

经济评论

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.49
ISSN:1005-3425
年,卷(期):2024.248(4)
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