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不确定性下的投资决策和资产定价研究综述

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随着全球经济不确定性的增加,不确定性对经济活动和金融市场的影响引起了多方关注.本文系统梳理了不确定性下的投资决策和资产定价的理论研究和实证研究成果,并发现尽管弗兰克·奈特早在一百多年前就提出应明确区分风险和不确定性,但是由于不确定性难以度量,即使不确定性下的投资决策和资产定价理论研究已取得了丰硕成果,实证研究也大多只考虑风险而不考虑不确定性.本文进一步梳理了不确定性度量的研究进展,特别是高频交易数据和计算机算力提升带来的最新进展,并对比了各类利用经济和金融市场中实际数据度量不确定性方法的差异和适用性.本文的研究成果有助于学者选取恰当的度量方法,研究不确定性对经济活动和金融市场的影响,以及金融市场的有效性,进而提出基于实际数据量化分析的政策建议和投资建议.
A Literature Review of Investment Decision and Asset Pricing under Uncertainty
With increasing global geopolitical and economic uncertainty,the impact of uncertainty on economic activity and financial markets has attracted significant attention.This paper systematically reviews the literature on investment decisions and asset pricing under uncertainty.Although Frank Knight emphasized over a century ago that risk and uncertainty should be treated in fundamentally different ways,the difficulty of measuring uncertainty has led empirical studies to primarily focus on risks,rather than uncertainty,despite substantial theoretical advancements in this area.With the advent of high-frequency data and improved computational power,research on measuring uncertainty has made groundbreaking progress.This paper compares various methods for measuring uncertainty using actual data from economic and financial markets,analyzing the differences and applicability of these methods.This comparison helps scholars select appropriate measurement approaches to study the impact of uncertainty on economic activity and financial markets,as well as the efficiency of financial markets.

Knightian UncertaintyAsset PricingInvestment DecisionMeasuring Uncertainty

李楠、邢帅、朱宇宏

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上海交通大学上海高级金融学院,200030

上海交通大学安泰与经济管理学院,200030

新加坡管理大学经济学院,188065

奈特不确定性 资产定价 投资决策 度量不确定性

2024

经济评论
武汉大学

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CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.49
ISSN:1005-3425
年,卷(期):2024.250(6)