首页|扩大外需能撬动国内国际双循环吗?——基于劳动力资源错配视角的解析

扩大外需能撬动国内国际双循环吗?——基于劳动力资源错配视角的解析

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扩大外需能否有效带动内需增长,进而顺利实现国内国际双循环,不仅取决于微观企业的自身努力,还与宏观经济的资源配置效率有着紧密联系.中国以劳动力资源充裕而资本稀缺的经济体角色参与世界贸易体系,因受制于劳动力要素和劳动力配置结构失衡,其双循环的实现必然受到影响.基于此,从劳动力资源错配的视角探讨扩大外需是否能撬动国内国际双循环,结果显示:(1)外需扩大对内需水平提升具有显著的促进作用且会随着开放程度的深化而加强,这种促进效应在市场化程度较高、产业结构更为合理的东部发达地区表现更为明显.(2)扩大外需短期内虽可以拉动内需,但缺乏劳动生产率同步提升的增长将以劳动力资源错配加剧为代价,不利于长期发展.因此,以市场环境持续改善和劳动生产率不断提升为基础的国内国际双循环新发展格局是突破"多重困境"的新时代策略.
Can Expanding Foreign Demand Pry Up the Domestic and International Double Cycle:Based on the Perspective of Resource Mismatch
Whether the expansion of external demand can effectively drive the growth of domestic demand and smoothly realize the international and domestic double cycle depends not only on the efforts of micro enter-prises,but also on the efficiency of macroeconomic resource allocation.Constrained by the imbalance of labor factors and labor allocation structure,China participates in the world trade system with abundant labor re-sources and scarce capital,will inevitably be affected by the allocation of labor resources.Based on this,this paper rethinks the dynamic evolution relationship between external demand and domestic demand from the per-spective of labor resource mismatch.Research shows:(1)The external expansion of domestic demand has a significant role in promoting ascension and will be increased,with the deepening of China's opening up and the promoting effect is more apparent in the area with the higher degree of marketization,more reasonable industri-al structure,such as the eastern developed areas.(2)In the short term,although the improvement of external demand can promote the growth of domestic demand,the lack of synchronized growth of labor productivity will aggravate the mismatch of labor resources.This is not conducive to the long-term development of China's econ-omy.Therefore,this paper argues that the new development pattern based on the continuous improvement of the market environment and the continuous improvement of labor productivity is a new strategy to break through the"multiple dilemmas"in the new era.

external demand fluctuationinternal demand growthlabor allocation efficiencyresource misallocationdouble cycle

李文秀、黄宗启

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广东金融学院经济贸易学院

华南师范大学经济与管理学院

外需波动 内需增长 劳动力配置 资源错配 双循环

2024

产经评论
暨南大学

产经评论

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.602
ISSN:1674-8298
年,卷(期):2024.15(5)