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人工智能时代何以兼顾结构转型与收入分配

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机器人作为实现生产过程数字化智能化的重要装备,能否兼顾结构转型与收入分配?文章构建两部门一般均衡模型阐述理论机制,并数值模拟两种情形下机器人应用对产业结构转型和要素收入分配的影响,发现当工业品与服务品的消费替代弹性较低、工业生产中资本与劳动的替代弹性较高、服务业生产中资本与劳动的替代弹性较低时,机器人应用可以推动产业结构转型和提高劳动收入份额.利用我国2006~2017年省级面板数据展开实证研究发现,现阶段我国机器人应用能够有效促进产业结构转型,但降低了劳动收入份额.异质性分析显示,机器人应用的影响存在时间与区域异质性.调节效应检验表明,培育人力资本、优化服务业结构、提升创新能力、营造良好的制度环境是未来实现结构转型与收入分配双重目标的重要路径.
Balancing Structural Transformation and Income Distribution in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Robots,as critical tools for achieving digital and intelligent industrial production,serve as essential components in de-veloping a modem industrial framework to foster widespread prosperity.By developing a dual-sector static general equilibrium model,this study elucidates the theoretical underpinnings and through numerical simulations,examines the effects of robotic inte-gration on the transformation of industrial structures and the distribution of factor incomes under two distinct scenarios.It reveals that when the elasticity of consumption substitution between industrial and service goods is low,and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is high in industrial production but low in services,the adoption of robots favors the reshaping of indus-trial dynamics and enhances the proportion of labor income,thereby contributing to broader prosperity.An analysis of provincial panel data from 2006 to 2017 demonstrates that in China,the implementation of robotics has indeed facilitated a service-oriented shift within the industrial sector at the current stage,albeit at the expense of labor income's share,thus failing to effectively sup-port the goal of shared prosperity.This finding remains consistent even after conducting robustness checks.Further analysis high-lights both temporal and regional variations in how robotic integration impacts the evolution of industrial structures and the share of labor income.Moreover,tests on moderating effects indicate that the development of human capital,the optimization of the serv-ice sector's structure,enhanced innovation capabilities,and the establishment of a favorable institutional framework are conducive to realizing the dual objectives of fostering a service-oriented industrial transformation and increasing the share of labor income.

Robot ApplicationIndustrial Structure TransformationFactor Income DistributionCommon ProsperityEconomic Growth

宋培、白雪洁、艾阳

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南开大学经济学院

南开大学经济与社会发展研究院

机器人应用 产业结构转型 要素收入分配 共同富裕 经济增长

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家社会科学基金重大项目

21&ZD09923&ZD042

2024

经济社会体制比较
世界发展战略研究部

经济社会体制比较

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.771
ISSN:1003-3947
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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