Further Discussion on the Gradual Interest Rate Liberalization Reform in China——A Comparative Study Based on LPR Reform and Full Interest Rate Liberalization Simulation
Based on the practical path of China's interest rate liberalization reform,this paper re-examines the effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the process of interest rate liberalization through DSGE simulation and TVP-VAR time-varying analysis.The results show that market-oriented measures such as LPR reform can significantly improve the transmission efficiency and effectiveness of monetary policy,but will reduce the efficiency of fiscal policy.In addition,the measured results based on real data show that monetary and fiscal policies in the transmission to the real economy will have a certain degree of efficiency decline,which once again indicates that the implementation of interest rate liberalization reform should not be rushed.Therefore,the LPR reform is an expedient choice for the central bank to steadily promote the interest rate liberalization reform under the background of strong economic uncertainty and weak economic recovery.The central bank should continue to deepen the reform of LPR,cultivate market-oriented benchmark interest rates on the deposit side,and ensure that interest rates are fully market-oriented in a stable economic environment.
interest rate liberalizationLPRDSGE modelTVP-VAR model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
