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后工业化阶段的资产升值、内需扩张与经济增长

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后工业化阶段,世界主要发达经济体出现了明显的增长分化现象.从需求端对各国经济增长进行研究发现,内需扩张动力的不同是导致各国增长分化的主要原因.进一步研究发现,居民资产升值的财富效应与内需扩张有较强联系,美国居民收入占比低、贫富差距大、居民加杠杆少,但居民消费增长最为强劲,主要是由于居民资产增长的财富效应.美国居民在获得可支配收入以后消费支出的倾向很高,这是因为美国居民可以从资产升值中获得财富效应.美国内需扩张对资产升值的依赖性不断增强,而日本居民资产出现了长期持续的贬值,这使得居民的消费意愿很低.为此,我国应通过稳定房地产市场、提升股市作用、发展新型要素资产等,加快推动居民资产回到稳定增长的通道,改善居民消费预期,增强国内大循环的内生动力.
Asset Appreciation,Domestic Demand Expansion,and Economic Growth in the Post Industrial Stage
In the post industrial stage,major developed economies have experienced significant growth differentiation.This paper studies the economic growth of various countries from the demand side and finds that the difference in domestic demand expansion dynamics is the main reason for the differentiation of growth among countries.The driving force of domestic demand in the United States on economic growth exceeded the total domestic and foreign demand of other developed economies.Further research finds that the wealth effect of asset appreciation among residents is strongly related to the expansion of domestic demand.Although the proportion of American residents'income is low,the wealth gap is large,and residents are less leveraged,the growth of residents'consumption is the strongest,mainly due to the wealth effect of asset growth.American residents have a high propensity to consume after obtaining disposable income,as they can gain wealth effects from asset appreciation.The dependence of the expansion of domestic demand in the United States on asset appreciation continues to increase.However,there has been a long-term and sustained depreciation of Japanese residents'assets,which has led to a low willingness to consume.To this end,we should stabilize the real estate market,enhance the role of the stock market,develop new factor assets,and accelerate the return of residents'assets to stable growth channels.

asset appreciationexpand domestic demandresident consumptioneconomic growthgrowth differentiation

陆江源、曾兆祥

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中国宏观经济研究院经济研究所,北京100038

湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410006

资产升值 扩大内需 居民消费 经济增长 增长分化

2024

经济体制改革
四川省社会科学院

经济体制改革

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.942
ISSN:1006-012X
年,卷(期):2024.(3)