China's Macro Leverage Ratio and Fiscal and Monetary Policy Synergistic Regulation——Analysis Based on Time-Varying Characteristics and Leverage Heterogeneity Perspective
Based on the time-varying characteristics and leverage heterogeneity analysis,the MS-VAR and TVP-VAR models are used to investigate the zonal shift effect of China's macro leverage and the dynamic transmission effect of fiscal and monetary policies on macro leverage.The study finds that there is a clear three-zonal system in the regulation of macro leverage in China,and the stabilisation of leverage is predominant in the sample period.Fiscal and monetary policies have some synergistic regulatory effects on monetary funds,and the macro-leverage suppression effect of monetary funds is superior to that of fiscal and monetary policies.In terms of the heterogeneity of the leverage structure,fiscal and monetary policies have a more stable dampening effect on the leverage of residents,while monetary funds respond more quickly to the dampening of the leverage of non-financial enterprises and the government,and the degree and persistence of policy shocks have increased during the leverage stabilisation phase,but attention should be paid to the substitution effect of regulatory policies.Therefore,we should continue the orientation of"stabilising leverage"and not make a sharp turn,give full play to the synergistic effect of fiscal and monetary policies,and insist on the balance between"stable growth"and"risk prevention".
fiscal policyfiscal and monetary policy synergymacro leverage ratio
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