Does Population Aging Contribute to Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Risk?
The aging population will increase the demand of the pension sector,which may become an important factor to promote China's pro-cyclical financial risk.Based on the panel data of 52 countries from 1990 to 2020,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on the pro-cyclical risk of fiscal policy,its mechanism and the heterogeneity of related variables.The results show that population aging promotes the pro-cyclical characteristics of fiscal policy and increase the pro-cyclical fiscal risk,and the tax constraint and deficit size are the important factors that indirectly promote the pro-cyclical fiscal risk.In the period of economic recession,due to the decline of the government's fiscal capacity under the pro-cyclical tightening policy framework,the incremental pension demand cannot be effectively supported,resulting in an insignificant impact of aging under the pro-cyclical tightening policy framework.In the economies with the characteristics of"rich but too old",the effect of aging on the pro-cyclical fiscal policy is more obvious.Therefore,according to the key characteristics of the population age structure,China needs to give full play to the regulation function of smoothing economic fluctuations,relieve internal and external financial constraints,build a new open economic system,and promote China's fiscal policy cycle from"procyclical"to"counter-cyclical."
agingpro-cyclical financial riskfiscal balancemechanism of inspection
万方数据
维普
