摘要
本文基于企业维度数据研究区域贸易协定(RTA)对非成员国企业出口存续的第三方效应,并从信息成本视角揭示了第三方效应的来源.与传统的贸易转移观点不同,本文使用2000-2016年中国企业海关数据库以及深度贸易协定数据库研究发现,深度RTA对第三国企业具有积极的溢出效应:新老出口目的国之间签署RTA以及RTA深度的提高均有助于提升中国企业的出口存续概率,这一结论在多个维度的稳健性检验下保持一致.基于条款分类的初步研究表明,WTO-Plus条款、WTO-X条款以及非歧视条款深度的提高均产生了显著的第三方效应,特惠条款深度的影响则相反.机制分析发现,信息成本下降是第三方效应的主要来源,本文从不完全合约以及标准协同等两个视角为这一结论提供了佐证.最后,本文进一步证明,中国与缔约国之间的RTA深化具有类似的第三方效应,即当企业出口到与中国的缔约国存在RTA以及拥有共同语言的国家时,中国与缔约国之间的RTA深化有助于提高其出口存续概率.本文研究结论为中国企业出口关系的多元稳定提供了微观经验证据和政策参考.
Abstract
Exportation has been a significant driving force behind China's rapid economic growth.However,in recent years,China's exports have faced multiple constraints on both economic and non-economic fronts due to the uncertain trade environment,which has led to increased downward pressure on exports.Therefore,the urgent challenges in current foreign trade efforts are enhancing trade resilience and achieving progress while maintaining export stability.Further-more,China's exports should also establish diverse cooperative partnerships and economic relations while maintaining stability.However,according to existing literature,efforts to diversify exports,such as the export trials,may result in less stable export relationships,making it difficult to achieve both diversity and stability in exports.Given the complex and se-vere external circumstances and the urgent need to maintain diverse and stable economic and trade relationships,it is im-portant to study how to enhance stability while developing diverse economic and trade relationships.This holds important theoretical and practical significance for enhancing China's trade resilience and promoting the sustainable development of exports over the long term.This paper estimates the impact of the regional trade agreement(RTA)between new and old destination countries on the export survival probability of China's enterprises and its mechanism.The exogenous indicators of the third-country effects are constructed by combining the China Customs Enterprise Database and the World Bank Deep Trade Agreement Database.The results show that the export survival probability of China's enterprises is significantly improved by con-cluding RTA between new and old destination countries and increasing the depth of RTA.It is found that the spillover ef-fects of WTO-Plus provisions,WTO-X provisions,and non-discrimination provisions are significant and positive,while the preferential provisions have negative effects.The mechanism tests suggest that concluding RTA between new and old destination countries improves the export survival probability of China's enterprises by reducing export information costs,including incomplete contracts and standard coordination.The exploratory analysis demonstrates that the deepen-ing of RTA between China and its contracting countries has similar effects on third countries.The potential marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,this paper examines the impact of RTA be-tween new and old destination countries on China's enterprises about export survival.The focus is under the policy guid-ance of"endeavoring the diversity and stability of the international economic landscape and economic and trade rela-tions".The research conclusions not only clarify the relationship between enterprises'selection of export markets and their export survival at the micro level but also have important practical significance for achieving"diversity and stabil-ity"in China's exports at the macro level.Meanwhile,it is beneficial to literature on export stability.Secondly,this paper explores the sources of third-party effects in detail,distinguishing the categories and attributes of the provisions from the perspective of RTA texts.It is found that the deepening of behind-the-border provisions,such as WTO-X provisions,pro-vide third-country effects.Further exploratory work has been conducted on the sources of the third-country effects when focusing on the connotation of the effects.In addition,this paper extends the research perspective from enterprise entry to post-entry export dynamics.This paper further clarifies the mechanism of the third-country effects from the perspective of information costs.Finally,this paper proves that the deepening of China's RTA has a positive spillover effect on China's enterprise exports to third countries.These research conclusions provide empirical support for China's current strategy of complying with the trend of regional economic integration in the world and actively promoting the construction of free trade zones.
基金项目
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(23JJD790007)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据