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产业数字化与国内大循环

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增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性对构建新发展格局和实现高质量发展至关重要.本文测算分析了世界各国的产业数字化水平和国内大循环程度,并考察了产业数字化对国内大循环的影响效果和作用机制.研究发现:中国第二产业的数字化水平较高,第三产业数字化水平相较于主要发达国家存在提升空间;中国在生产端的循环基础较好,但最终需求端的循环基础还较弱,第三产业的国内经济循环程度与主要发达国家尚存差距.产业数字化显著促进了中间品本国供给率和本国需求率提升,但对最终品本国需求率影响不显著;产业数字化对国内经济循环的影响在第一产业中更为明显,但在发展中国家与发达国家、高科技行业与非高科技行业之间未表现出明显异质性.机制方面,产业数字化有利于提高全要素生产率、中间品质量以及平均工资水平,分别从供给和需求侧促进国内大循环;就中国而言,产业数字化水平的提升不仅能够增强国内大循环的内生动力,而且有利于提高核心技术自给能力.本文揭示,以产业数字化引领高质量需求、赋能供给体系质量提升、高质量推进第一和第二产业数字化转型、加快推进生产性服务业数字化转型,都有助于推进国内大循环建设,实现高水平自立自强.
Industrial Digitalization and Domestic Circulation
The new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and overseas circula-tions reinforcing each other represents a significant decision made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with Xi Jinping as its core.This decision is made based on the stage of China's development,environmental changes,and prevailing conditions.A robust and reliable domestic circulation is the cornerstone ensuring the stability and sustained development of China's economy amidst a complex external environment.It is also crucial to promote steady economic growth and achieve high-quality development in China.In the context of accelerated reform of the new genera-tion of information technology and rapid integration of the digital economy with the real economy,this paper,from the perspective of industrial digitalization,explores whether industrial digitalization can enhance the resilience and reliability of the domestic economic circulation by improving supply quality and expanding domestic demand,thus providing theo-retical references and policy suggestions for accelerating the establishment of the new development paradigm.Based on large multinational industry panel data covering 43 economies and 56 industries from 2000 to 2014,com-piled from world input-output tables,this paper calculates,by using the input-output method,industrial digitalization level and domestic economic circulation indicator both at the national-industry level.The study finds that China's second-ary industry has a high level of digitalization,while the tertiary industry lags behind the major developed countries.China's primary industry has a good domestic circulation degree,but there is room for improvement in the final product link of the secondary industry and domestic circulation of the tertiary industry.Enhancing domestic demand and final product quality is key to boosting the endogenous dynamics of domestic circulation.On both supply and demand sides,in-dustrial digitalization can facilitate domestic circulation by improving total factor productivity,intermediate goods qual-ity,and average wage levels,thereby enhancing the resilience and reliability of domestic circulation.In terms of heteroge-neity,the impact of industrial digitalization on domestic circulation is more pronounced in the primary industry.For China,the improvement in the level of industrial digitalization can not only enhance the endogenous dynamics of domes-tic circulation but also help improve China's self-sufficiency rate of core technologies and break through core technologi-cal bottlenecks,thus achieving economic self-reliance and strength.The possible marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,from the perspective of research,there is a lack of quantitative studies on the new development paradigm,particularly concerning its promotion through industrial digitalization.This paper is the first to focus on the theoretical and empirical relationship between industrial digitalization and domestic circulation,enriching the research related to digital transformation and the new development paradigm.Sec-ondly,it quantitatively compares China and major developed countries in terms of the industrial digitalization level and domestic circulation level,and sets out related typical facts,providing references for understanding the global position of China's industrial digitalization and domestic circulation.Thirdly,in terms of theoretical mechanisms,it explores the im-pact of industrial digitalization on domestic circulation through three channels,namely productivity,intermediate goods quality,and income.Lastly,in terms of policy implications,on the demand side,the future focus of domestic circulation should be on steadily increasing the disposable income of residents,expanding domestic demand,and strengthening the demand for domestic final and intermediate goods;on the supply side,a high-quality domestic supply system should be built to improve the quality of domestic products and services,with a more flexible and efficient supply system to meet the upgrading domestic needs.In addition,it highlights the critical role of digital transformation in enhancing domestic demand and improving the supply system,with industrial digitalization supporting the mutual reinforcement of domestic and international circulations.

Industrial DigitalizationDomestic CirculationIntermediate Product SupplySelf-sufficiency Rate of Core Technologies

张洪胜、杜雨彤、张小龙

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浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院

浙江大学经济学院,邮政编码:310058

宁夏回族自治区博物馆,邮政编码:750000

产业数字化 国内大循环 中间品供给 核心技术自给率

国家自然科学基金面上项目国家社会科学基金重大项目浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目浙江省哲学社会科学规划项目

7227312523&ZD08422NDQN203YB22ZJQN13YB

2024

经济研究
中国社会科学院经济研究所

经济研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:4.821
ISSN:0577-9154
年,卷(期):2024.59(5)
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