High-standard Trade Agreements and Global Supply Chain Resilience:The Perspective of Institutional Environment
Currently,the global economic recovery remains fragile,with frequent international economic and trade fric-tions,escalating geopolitical conflicts,increased uncertainty,and the US push for supply chain reshaping leading to the fragmentation of the global economy and trade.These factors pose a significant challenge to the resilience of global sup-ply chains.The pressing question is:how to effectively improve the resilience level of global supply chains?This paper examines whether high-standard trade agreements can become a viable solution to managing global supply chain risks,considering China's implementation of the strategy of free trade areas.The paper,based on institutional environment channels,explores the impact of high-standard trade agreements on global supply chain resilience(GSCR),which con-sists of six sections.It starts with an introduction,and followed by an analysis of stylized facts.Section 3 constructs a theoretical model to elucidate the influence of the institutional environment on supply chain resilience.Section 4 assesses the impact of high-standard trade agreements on the institutional environment through structural estimation.Section 5 uses quantitative analysis to examine the effect of high-standard trade agreements on GSCR through the institutional envi-ronment,and Section 6 concludes with policy implications.In the analysis of stylized facts,we employ survival analysis,linear models,and causal analysis to examine the effect of trade agreement depth on GSCR.Theoretical modeling in-volves constructing a dynamic contract model illustrating the relationship between institutional environment and supply chain resilience.Structural estimation and quantitative analysis entail developing a likelihood function,employing Bayes-ian estimation to determine structural parameters,and quantitatively assessing the impact of high-standard trade agree-ments on GSCR by using China as a case study.The main data utilized in this study are sourced from the global bilateral HS1996 6-digit intermediate products trade data from 1996 to 2020 in the CEPII BACI database,and the trade agreement depth data from 1996 to 2015 in the global trade agreement depth database established by Hofmann et al.(2017).The main findings of this study are threefold.Firstly,the stylized facts indicate that the increase in the depth of trade agreements can reduce the risk of disruptions in global supply chain transaction relationships and improve resilience.Sec-ondly,the theoretical model indicates that under supply chain shocks,an improvement in the institutional environment,i.e.,an increase in contract coverage rate,whether under spot or relational contracts,can decrease the probability of supply chain transaction relationship disruptions and enhance resilience.Moreover,firms utilizing relational contracts prove greater resilience in the supply chain than those relying on spot contracts.Thirdly,structural estimation and quantitative analysis confirm that the increase in the depth of trade agreements can improve the institutional environment,decrease the probability of global supply chain disruptions,and enhance resilience.The implementation of the Regional Comprehen-sive Economic Partnership(RCEP)and the accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP)will reduce the probability of China's import supply chain disruptions from member countries,sig-nificantly amplifying China's GSCR compared to the existing trade agreements.Based on this,effective measures to en-hance China's supply chain resilience will be actively signing and implementing high-standard trade agreements and building a first-class business system environment.The contribution of this paper lies in the three extensions to Antràs'(2023)model.Firstly,it incorporates the institu-tional environment into a dynamic contract model.Unlike Defever et al.(2016)and Kukharskyy(2016)who assume com-plete contract incompleteness,our model introduces varying levels of the institutional environment through partial con-tract incompleteness and uses contract coverage rate to measure the level of the institutional environment,which is a mar-ginal improvement.Secondly,it incorporates stochastic supply chain shocks and analyzes supply chain disruptions.Dif-fering from Naghavi et al.(2023)who directly utilize the value of static contracts as a proxy for relationship duration,we employ a dynamic discrete choice model to obtain the endogenous contract termination probabilities.Thirdly,it incorpo-rates contract mode selection.Firms choose between spot and relational contracts.So,the institutional environment will influence supply chain resilience differently as firms'choice differs.This enriches the supply chain mechanisms.Finally,it conducts a quantitative analysis of the impacts of China's implementation of RCEP and accession to CPTPP on enhanc-ing its GSCR.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
