Global Supply Chain Disruption and Restructuring under Trade Policy Shocks
With increasing international economic and policy uncertainties as well as the resurgence of trade protection-ism,frequent adjustments and sudden shifts in trade policies pose significant challenges to the stability of global supply chains.Thus,accurately assessing the risks and impacts of trade policy shocks on Chinese enterprises within the global supply chain network and identifying response strategies and specific measures taken by micro-entities are crucial for un-derstanding and navigating the ongoing transformation of global supply chains.It also carries significant policy implica-tions and practical relevance for clarifying China's strategic direction and response measures in the context of accelerat-ing global supply chain restructuring.Based on that,our study takes the U.S.tariff hikes on imported Chinese products starting in March 2018 as a repre-sentative case of trade policy changes.By using the FactSet Revere database,we identify and track supply chain relation-ships between Chinese listed companies and overseas customers,empirically examining the dynamic patterns of supply chain disruption and restructuring under trade policy shocks.Our study finds that(1)trade policy shocks significantly affect the continuity of supply chains.Following the U.S.tariff hikes,the probability of supply chain disruption between Chinese firms and the U.S.partners increases significantly due to the substantial rise in tariff costs.Also,we explore the key factors influencing supply chain resilience,which re-veals that supply chain resilience is notably stronger with lower product substitutability,higher contractual costs,and a longer cooperation relationship between suppliers and their overseas customers.(2)We also focus on patterns of supply chain restructuring under trade policy shocks.On the one hand,once supply chains are disrupted,it is difficult to recover in the short term.On the other hand,new cooperation networks rapidly form as old supply chains break,leading to a shift in supply chain relationships.Specifically,companies tend to re-establish supply chain relationships near-shore and do-mestically,as well as in other developed areas of Europe and America outside the United States.Accordingly,firms adjust their industrial scope.The success rate of supply chain restructuring depends on more transparent and timely information as well as a diversified product-market structure.The contributions of our study are as follows.(1)The existing research on the economic impacts of trade policy shocks primarily focuses on macroeconomic effects or the overall impact on firms,with little discussion about the supply chain relationship between firms.We provide a new empirical perspective by examining the inter-firm supply chain rela-tionships at the micro level.(2)Regarding the issue of supply chain disruption and restructuring under external shocks,previous literature has mainly focused on discussing the impact of external shocks such as natural disasters,public health crises,and socio-political conflicts,while the impact of trade policy shocks and their micro-mechanisms still require fur-ther study.We focus on trade policy changes,a specific external shock less addressed in this strand of literature,and fur-ther reveal the roles of increased trade costs and trade policy uncertainties.(3)By considering the dynamic changes from overseas supply chain disruption to restructuring,we comprehensively capture the dynamic patterns of firms'cross-border strategic adjustments under external shocks.According to the above findings,we propose corresponding policy recommendations for the government from four aspects:strengthen global strategic planning and policy coordination to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enter-prises in the global market;promote institutional opening up to align domestic market rules with international standards,thereby reducing institutional transaction costs;increase support for digital empowerment of enterprises to improve their efficiency in overseas information search and market response;and keep advancing the construction of a unified national market to break down regional barriers within the domestic market and enhance the linkage effects between domestic and international markets.In the increasingly complex global economic landscape,these measures can help to enhance the risk resistance of Chinese enterprises within global supply chains and strengthen the overall economic security and au-tonomy.
万方数据
维普
