Demand Risk Diversification and Chinese Export Enterprise Innovation
The world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century,with geopolitical conflicts and global economic uncertainties continuously intensifying.China is attempting to establish a more diversified portfolio of export destination markets to diversify the risk of external demand shocks.Existing literature has mainly examined the impacts of changes in demand scale and demand shocks in segmented destination markets on innovation,while ignoring the impacts of co-fluctuation of demand shocks in multiple destination markets and risk diversification on enterprise innovation.Based on this,this paper incorporates the portfolio theory into the framework of trade theory and combines it with enterprise inno-vation.It theoretically derives the inverted U-shaped relationship between the external demand risk diversification index and enterprise innovation,as well as its influencing mechanisms,and conducts corresponding empirical tests and analy-ses.It proposes new paths and possibilities for promoting the construction of China's high-level and high-quality opening-up system and boosting China's strength in innovation from the perspective of risk diversification.It is found that firstly,the demand risk diversification in the export destination market exhibits a significant inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect on the innovation of Chinese export enterprises.It is not the case that the higher the level of de-mand risk diversification in the destination market is,the more it can stimulate enterprise innovation.Secondly,enter-prises'unit innovation cost,risk aversion,and the potential risk diversification capacity of other external options influ-ence the curvature or vertex of the inverted U-shaped curve,which constitute the influencing mechanisms of the above in-verted U-shaped relationship.Thirdly,in the current economic environment where demand risk diversification is deterio-rating,China should actively exert the influencing mechanism that flattens the inverted U-shaped curve and carefully deal with the influencing mechanism that makes the inverted U-shaped curve steeper.Fourthly,when external demand risks are high and existing product portfolios are unable to effectively diversify risks,"exploratory innovation"in new technol-ogy fields may be a further extension of enterprises'risk diversification behavior.The contributions of our study are as follows.Firstly,from the perspective of the co-fluctuation of demand shocks in multiple destination markets,this paper incorporates the endogenous innovation decisions and market portfolio decisions of risk-averse enterprises into a unified theoretical framework,and deduces the inverted U-shaped relationship between demand risk diversification index and enterprise innovation theoretically.Secondly,it first derives the mechanism vari-ables that affect the inverted U-shaped relationship from the theoretical model.It is found that enterprises'unit innovation cost,risk aversion,and the potential risk diversification capacity of other external options are the influencing mechanisms that affect the vertex and curvature of the inverted U-shaped curve.The paper then conducts empirical testing and value judgment on the relevant mechanisms.Thirdly,this paper further explores the relationship between the demand risk diver-sification index and enterprise innovation in new technological fields,which provides a new research perspective and em-pirical evidence for China to cultivate and strengthen emerging industries and promote the development of new quality productive forces.Based on the above conclusions,this paper obtains the following policy implications.Firstly,we should establish an industrial chain safety assessment system,closely follow the changes in the external market environment and demand risks,and balance the relationship between external demand risks and enterprise innovation.On the one hand,it is neces-sary to expand a diversified demand market system and build a multi-level risk diversification network to hedge against demand shocks from specific countries,so as to avoid the adverse impact of the excessive deterioration of external de-mand risks on enterprise innovation.On the other hand,it is essential to expand opening-up,promote market competition,and encourage enterprises to innovate with moderate risks.Secondly,we should formulate a reasonable innovation incen-tive system to accurately support high-cost,high-value innovations and basic innovations,and enhance the liquidity of en-terprise assets and their ability to resist risks.Thirdly,we should support enterprises in carrying out exploratory innova-tion in new technological fields to inject new impetus into the development of new quality productive forces.
Demand Risk DiversificationEnterprise InnovationMechanism Test of Inverted U-shaped RelationshipIn-novation in New Technological Field
万方数据
维普
