The problem of low fertility rates has become a common challenge facing modern society.According to the economic theory of fertility proposed by Gary Becker,fertility decisions are determined by the utility and cost of fertility.Therefore,subsidy policies aimed at reducing the cost of childbirth are expected to have a positive impact on fertility.However,in the empirical study of the effect of fertility subsidy policy,there is no consistent conclusion because of the differences in the specific national conditions,cultural traditions,development stages and basic systems of various coun-tries,or the differences in the policy design such as the duration and receiving standards of fertility subsidies.Since China entered the low fertility era in the early 1990s,it has lasted for more than 30 years.The number of births in 2023 was 9.02 million,about 8.84 million lower than that in 2016,or 49.50％lower.Under the severe situation of population security and low fertility,can the implementation of the fertility subsidy policy in China effectively curb the continuous decline of fertility rates?This study co-designed a field experiment with the former Hubei Provincial Health and Family Planning Commis-sion to carry out pilot fertility subsidies in 21 counties,cities and districts in Hubei Province.Based on the field experi-ment,this paper uses DID-PSM and entropy balance to study the effect of pilot fertility subsidies on people's fertility in-tention.The study reveals that the fertility subsidy policy significantly affects people's fertility intention,but there is a"threshold",that is,only when the subsidy amount is higher than a certain amount,can the fertility subsidy play a posi-tive role.The research also verifies the incentive and underpinning effects of fertility subsidies,namely that fertility subsi-dies increase people's intention to have another child,and significantly reduce the probability of people explicitly choos-ing not to have another child.In contrast,the underpinning effect of fertility subsidies is more obvious than the incentive effect.Mechanism analysis shows that,on the one hand,fertility subsidies improve residents'fertility intentions by reduc-ing fertility costs.On the other hand,the passive implementation strategy of primary departments weakens the incentive effect of fertility subsidies.When people are dissatisfied with local family planning services,fertility subsidies have no significant effect on fertility intention.Further research reveals that groups not covered by fertility insurance and in poor areas are more likely to be positively affected by fertility subsidies.When the first child is a boy,fertility subsidies have a greater impact on people's intention to have another child.In addition,this paper further uses the fourth"Hubei 100 Counties Fertility Survey"to preliminarily verify the positive impact of fertility subsidies on second-child fertility behav-ior.The marginal contributions of this paper are three-fold.First,this paper uses the field experiment method to test the policy effect of fertility subsidies in China for the first time,providing reliable evidence for the policy design and imple-mentation effectiveness evaluation of fertility support policies.Second,based on Gary Becker's idea of comparing chil-dren to durable goods,this paper expands the fertility decision into a phased and progressive decision-making process,and divides people's fertility intention into two dimensions:incentive effect and underpinning effect.Third,this paper demonstrates that the policy implementation strategy is the key factor affecting the effect of fertility subsidies.This has provided theoretical references and enlightenment for the practice of China's fertility support policy.The policy implications of this paper are four-fold.First,the fertility subsidy policy should be more widely included in the population service system covering the whole population and the whole life cycle.Second,local governments should formulate implementation plans and subsidy standards for fertility subsidies according to local conditions,and fo-cus on its supporting role for people with fertility difficulties.Third,it is crucial to carry out extensive and targeted public-ity work on the specific content and implementation methods of the fertility subsidy policy to create a positive public opinion atmosphere for fertility.Fourth,it is essential to strengthen the policy incentive mechanism for fertility subsidies and mobilize multi-party forces and multi-channel funds to effectively ensure the sustainability of fertility subsidies.
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