首页|长江中游城市群经济—交通—环境的耦合协调评价及动态效应研究

长江中游城市群经济—交通—环境的耦合协调评价及动态效应研究

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通过构建经济—交通—环境耦合协调模型,基于2009-2019年长江中游城市群31个城市的面板数据,衡量系统间的相互作用,分别采用耦合协调模型与面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)研究长江中游城市群经济—交通—环境的耦合协调评价及动态效应。从整体来看,长江中游城市群各城市的协调发展水平逐步提高,各个子系统之间的互动作用逐渐增强,但要达到勉强协调发展阶段还需要一定的时间。从动态效应来看,交通对经济发展的动态影响路径呈持续上升趋势;生态环境对经济发展有正向影响,但影响系数较低;生态环境对交通发展的提升效果明显但不具有可持续性,随着时间的推移生态环境的冲击效应趋于平缓。
Study on the Coupling Coordination Evaluation and Dynamic Effects of Economy Transportation Environment in the Urban Agglomeration of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River
Based on the panel data of 31 cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2009 to 2019,this paper constructed a coupled coordination model of economy,transportation and environment to measure the interaction between the systems.The coupled coordination model and panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR)were used respectively to study the evaluation and dynamic effects of the coupled coordination of economy,transportation and environment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration.The research conclusions are as follows:on the whole,the coordinated development level of cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration is gradually enhanced,and the interaction between each subsystem is gradually strengthened,but it still needs some time to reach the stage of barely coordinated development.From the perspective of dynamic effect,the dynamic influence path of traffic on economic development shows a continuous rising trend.Ecological environment has positive influence on economic development,but the influence coefficient is low.The ecological environment has an obvious effect on the improvement of traffic development,but it is not sustainable.As time goes by,the impact effect of ecological environment tends to be flat.

Urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze RiverEconomic developmentTransportationEnvironmentCoupling coordinationPVAR

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江苏大学,江苏镇江 212013

长江中游城市群 经济发展 交通 环境 耦合协调 PVAR

2024

经济研究导刊
黑龙江省报刊出版中心

经济研究导刊

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.313
ISSN:1673-291X
年,卷(期):2024.(9)