Prediction of Population Aging Trend and Influencing Factors in Guangdong Province Based on Grey Theory
The aging of China's population continues to intensify,which has a profound impact on all areas of economic operation,all links of social construction,social and cultural aspects,as well as national comprehensive strength and international competitiveness.Therefore,taking the aging population of Guangdong Province as the research object,based on the GM(1,1)model,this study explores the changing trend of the number and proportion of elderly population from 2022 to 2035.Using grey relational analysis and principal component analysis methods,analyze the 8 factors that affect aging and identify the main influencing factors.The results indicate that the number and proportion of elderly people aged 65 and above will show an increasing trend year by year in the next 14 years.It is expected that by 2035,the number of elderly people aged 65 and above will reach 158473500,accounting for 9.971543035%;urbanization rate,mortality rate,birth rate,number of health technicians,number of beds in medical and health institutions,and per capita GDP are six important factors affecting aging;economic development factors and population structure factors are the two main components that affect aging.
Population agingGM(1,1)modelGrey correlation analysisPrincipal component analysisInfluencing factors
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
