The Effect of Uncertainty Shock on Household Consumption Resilience
Exploring the impact of uncertainty on the resilience of Chinese resi-dents'consumption is of great practical significance for expanding domestic demand,smoothing the domestic cycle and economic recovery.By constructing a stochastic computable general equilibrium model of China's domestic demand market,this paper measures the impact of uncertainty shocks on the resilience of household consump-tion from the perspectives of aggregate and structure,and examines the guarantee mechanism of different policy combinations to expand the resilience of household con-sumption from the institutional perspective.The results show that income level is the most important factor affecting the resilience of residents'consumption,and the im-pact of multi-risk cross-infection on residents'consumption resistance is greater than the simple superposition of single factors,and the recovery shock may have a reverse impact on different economic indicators.The resilience of urban and rural residents'consumption is structurally different,and the recovery shocks on the supply side and the demand side jointly affect the resilience of the domestic demand market,among which excess supply will also cause a decline in economic benefits.To improve the resilience of household consumption and achieve the goal of expanding domestic de-mand,it is necessary to integrate the roles of the government and the market,and the policy guidance needs to focus on employment issues and realize the free flow of land and capital factors between regions.This paper further puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.This paper uses the method of calculable general equilib-rium to explore the resilience of household consumption,which breaks through the limitations of local equilibrium in existing studies and comprehensively and system-atically measures the resilience of household consumption.By introducing random numbers,the impact of uncertainty shocks on the resilience of household consumption is more effectively simulated,which provides more specific and detailed theoretical support and policy enlightenment for the expansion of household consumption.
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