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基于VAR模型的我国对外贸易与人民币国际化关系研究

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目前,我国经济正转型高质量发展,综合国力不断提高.在国际局势动荡的环境下,我国顶住压力成为全球唯一GDP正增长的主要经济体,为世界各国经济复苏作出表率.我国不断深化与各国的经贸往来,人民币国际化进程也随之加快.本文主要选取2016-2023年季度数据,在ADF检验、格兰杰因果检验的基础上建立VAR模型,并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解法对我国对外贸易与人民币国际化之间的关系展开实证研究.得出结论:对外贸易对人民币国际化具有正向的推动作用,且相比于出口贸易,进口贸易对人民币环球指数的贡献度更大.
Research on the Relationship between China's Foreign Trade and RMB Internationalization Based on VAR Model
At present,China's economy is transforming into high-quality development,and the comprehensive national strength is constantly improving.In the face of the economic downturn,China has withstood the pressure to become the only major economy in the world with positive GDP growth,setting an example for the economic recovery of the world.China has also been deepening the economic and trade exchanges with other countries,and the process of RMB internationalization is also being accelerated.This paper mainly selects the quarterly data of 2016-2023,establishes VAR model on the basis of ADF test and Granger causality test,and carries out empirical research on the relationship between China's foreign trade and RMB internationalization through pulse response function and variance decomposition method.It is concluded that foreign trade plays a positive role in promoting the internationalization of RMB,and compared with export trade,import trade contributes more to the RMB global index.

RMB internationalizationforeign tradeVAR model

刘忠畅、孙小明

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长春工业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春 130051

人民币国际化 对外贸易 VAR模型

2024

吉林金融研究
中国人民银行长春中心支行

吉林金融研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.418
ISSN:1009-3109
年,卷(期):2024.(4)