基于主成分分析法的中国大麦产业发展影响因素实证分析
Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors of Barley Industry Development in China Based on Principal Component Method
谭琳元 1李先德2
作者信息
- 1. 防灾科技学院经济管理学院,河北廊坊 065201
- 2. 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
- 折叠
摘要
随着中国大麦消费需求的不断增加,大麦进口大幅快速增长,但国内大麦种植面积锐减,产量持续下降,生产规模严重萎缩,大麦产业安全面临严峻挑战.基于大麦产业发展的现实状况,从进口、国内生产能力、国际竞争力三个方面选取15个具体指标构建大麦产业发展影响因素指标体系,以1995-2020年数据为研究样本,采用主成分法分析影响大麦产业发展的主要因素.研究结果表明:中国大麦产业发展的主要影响因素为进口依赖程度较强、贸易竞争力较弱、生产稳定性较差和进口冲击较大,即大麦进口对国内大麦产业发展产生重要影响,自身生产能力与国际竞争力是影响大麦产业可持续发展的根本因素.因此,提出加强进口管理,推进进口来源多元化,加大政策支持力度等政策建议,降低进口冲击和依赖,提高国内生产能力和国际竞争力,保障中国大麦产业可持续发展.
Abstract
With the continuous increase of China's barley consumption demand,the import of barley increased sharply and rapidly,but the domestic barley planting area decreased significantly,the output continued to decline,the production scale reduced seriously,and the safety of the barley industry faced severe challenges.Based on the actual situation of barley industry development,15 specific indicators were selected from three aspects of import,do-mestic production capacity and international competitiveness to construct an index system of influencing factors of barley industry development.The data from 1995 to 2020 were used as research samples,and the main factors re-sults show that,the main factors affecting the development of barley industry are strong import dependence,weak trade competitiveness,poor production stability and import impact.Barley import has an important impact on the de-velopment of domestic barley industry.The production capacity and international competitiveness are the fundamen-tal affecting factors.Therefore,the sustainable development of China's barley industry should be ensured by strengthening barley import management,promoting the diversification of import sources to reduce import impact and dependence,and strengthening policy support to improve domestic production capacity and international com-petitiveness.
关键词
大麦产业/进口/影响因素/主成分分析Key words
Barley industry/Import/Influencing factors/Principal component analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家大麦青稞产业技术体系建设专项经费项目(CARS-05-06A-01)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(ZY20210318)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据