基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别
Identification of Key Causal Chains of Ship Collisions Based on Cascade Failure
朱怀伟 1刘建舟 1柴田1
作者信息
- 1. 集美大学航海学院,福建厦门 361021
- 折叠
摘要
基于级联失效理论,提出一种船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别方法.首先将船舶碰撞事故致因因素抽象为网络模型,然后设计基于级联失效理论的致因链识别方法,最后利用100起船舶碰撞事故对该方法进行案例分析.结果表明:该方法能够有效识别船舶碰撞事故关键致因链,可为船舶需求优先级管理提供一定的理论依据和决策支持.
Abstract
In order to reveal the evolution pattern of ship collision causes and effectively prevent ship col-lision accidents,this paper proposed a key causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure the-ory.Firstly,the causal factors of ship collision are abstracted into a network model.Secondly,the causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure theory is designed.Finally,100 ship collision accidents are used to analyze this method in a case study.The results of the case study show that this method can effectively identify the key causal chains of ship accidents.It can provide some theoretical basis and decision support for ship demand priority management.
关键词
船舶碰撞事故/致因链/级联失效/复杂网络Key words
ship collision/causal chain/cascade failure/complex network引用本文复制引用
基金项目
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JAT200239)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据