Spillovers from US Disaggregated Economic Policy Uncertainty to China's Provincial Economy:Empirical Analysis based on a GVAR Model
In the context of global economic integration,economic policy uncertainty in one country will spill over to other countries and regions through trade and investment channels.To analyze the impact of US economic uncertainty on China's provinces and regions,a global vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the shock effects of US trade,fiscal and monetary pol-icy uncertainty on China's provincial economies.It is found that the impulse shocks of US trade policy uncertainty on the macroe-conomy of each province are larger than those of monetary policy uncertainty,while the impulse shocks of fiscal policy uncertainty are significantly smaller.The impulse shocks of trade and monetary policy uncertainty in the US are more heterogeneous across provinces.The more"well-developed"a province's economy is,the more negative and smaller the shocks to the consumer price in-dex tend to be for each province,while the more positive and larger the shocks to imports and exports tend to be.Provinces need to be aware of the impact of trade and monetary policy uncertainty on regional CPI and imports and exports in order to respond well in advance.Provinces should further enhance their innovation capacity and openness to weaken the negative shocks of external eco-nomic policy uncertainty.
National Economic ManagementEconomic Policy UncertaintyProvincial EconomiesShock EffectsGlobal Vector Autoregressive Models
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