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航空公司利用上海燃料油期货套期保值交易的战略研究--基于ECM-GARCH模型的实证分析

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十二五规划中我国将航空业纳入了重点新兴产业,但是,近几年来航油价格剧烈波动给航空业及其相关产业发展带来较大风险。本文研究了航空公司利用上海燃料油期货交易对航空煤油进行套期保值的策略,基于2004—2012年现货和期货价格的日数据,采用ECM-GARCH模型测算出最优的套期保值比率为39.72%,能够帮助航空公司规避约15%的航油价格波动风险。本文认为,该策略在一定程度上能稳定企业收益,但绩效值略微偏低,这主要是由于危机时期,套期保值的绩效不仅与套保比率相关,还较大程度地受到汇率波动和宏观经济形势的影响。基于此,本文提出了新时期国有和民营航空公司进行套保交易的战略建议。
The twelfth five-year plan has listed the aircraft industry as one of the key emerging industries. Howev-er,the drastic fluctuations of aviation oil prices have posed huge risks to the development of aircraft industry and other related industries. This paper conducts an empirical study on the strategies of airlines’using Shanghai fuel futures to hedge against the fluctuations of jet fuel by using daily data of spot goods and futures from 2004 to 2012. It adopts ECM-GARCH model to calculate the best hedging ratio which is 39.72%. The paper also verifies that applying Shang-hai fuel futures for hedging is feasible and can help airlines avoid approximately 15%of the risk in jet fuel price fluctua-tion. It does help airlines maintain corporate profits to a certain degree,but the performance is slightly low. The analy-sis shows that due to the crisis,the performance of hedging is not only related with the hedging ratio,but also greatly affected by the fluctuations of exchange rate and the macro-economic situation. Finally,the paper puts forward strate-gic proposals and suggestions for the new-age state-owned and private airlines to do hedging.

hedgingECM-GARCHjet fuelShanghai fuel futures

孙瑾、赵志宏

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中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,北京 100081

上海交通大学上海高级金融学院,上海 200030

套期保值 ECM-GARCH 航空煤油 上海燃料油期货

12YJC790165

2013

金融发展研究
山东省金融学会

金融发展研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.55
ISSN:1674-2265
年,卷(期):2013.(6)
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