首页|新发展模式过渡视角下的住房需求与供给

新发展模式过渡视角下的住房需求与供给

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研判房地产市场供求关系和城镇化格局等的变化,是探索建立新发展模式的前提.理论建模和实证分析的结果显示,城镇化对住房需求的拉动下降,居民杠杆率、房价收入比对住房需求也产生下拉作用,地方土地财政、房企高杠杆的传统模式难以为继.建议在坚持"房住不炒"、租购并举的同时,推动房企转换经营理念,健全完善房企监管,提升信贷供给与行业发展的契合度.
Housing Demand and Supply in the Context of the Transition to a New Development Paradigm
Examining changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market and the pattern of ur-banization is a prerequisite for exploring the establishment of a new development model.The results of theoretical mod-eling and empirical analysis show that the pull of urbanization on housing demand has declined,that the leverage rate of residents and the house price-to-income ratio have also had a downward effect on housing demand,and that the tra-ditional pattern of local land finance and high leverage of real estate enterprises is unsustainable.It is suggested that while adhering to the"housing without speculation"and the combination of rental and purchase,we should promote the conversion of the business philosophy of real estate enterprises,improve and perfect the supervision of real estate enterprises,and enhance the degree of fit between the credit supply and the development of the industry.

housing demand and supplyurbanizationleveragenew development pattern

邹澜、邱潮斌、李航、时昱旻

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中国人民银行,北京 100081

住房供求 城镇化 杠杆率 新发展模式

2024

金融发展研究
山东省金融学会

金融发展研究

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.55
ISSN:1674-2265
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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