Against the dual background of the continuing instability of the international trade environment and the urgent need to build a new development pattern in China,the report to the 20th CPC National Congress points out that it is necessary to further smooth the circulation of both supply and demand and continue to promote high-standard opening up guided by expanding domestic demand.As an important policy tool for China to stabilize foreign trade and promote development,research on the supply and external demand side of export tax rebate(ETR)has been widely discussed,but related research on the consumption side and domestic demand side is very scarce.This paper uses the ETR Library,China Statistical Yearbook,China Taxation Yearbook,World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS),and the United States International Trade Commission(USITC)to calculate the data of ETR rates at the product level,and the price and wage data at the regional level in China from 2004 to 2021.This paper examines the impact of the ETR policy on China's product price and wage level,and draws on Cravino and Levchenko(2017)to measure the consumer welfare effect of China's ETR policy from the channels of income and consumption.This paper finds that the increase in the ETR rate improves the level of consumer welfare by lowering the price level,that is,reducing the consumption effect,and raising the wage level to increase the income effect.The regression result is still robust after considering the endogeneity problem.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that consumers in different regions and with different incomes were affected differently by the ETR increase,among which the eastern region and low-income consumers benefit the most.Compared with previous literature,this paper has the following contributions.First,it elaborates on the theoretical mechanism of ETR affecting the welfare level of consumers,and expands previous literature on ETR policy from the perspective of the demand side and consumption side.Second,different from the previous measurement of consumer welfare effects which only considers the transmission mechanism of tradables and measures the consumer welfare effect from the consumption channel or the income channel,this paper also considers the transmission mechanism of tradables and non-tradables to examine the impact of ETR on prices and wages,and comprehensively calculates the consumer welfare effect of ETR from channels of consumption and income.Third,this paper expands to the analysis of income heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity and explores the difference in welfare distribution of ETR to eastern,central,and western regions and low,mid-low,and mid-high income consumer groups.This paper discusses the internal mechanism of the impact of ETR policy on domestic product prices,wage levels,and consumer welfare levels,comprehensively evaluates the effects of ETR policy on domestic demand and consumption,and provides a theoretical basis for the adjustment of ETR policy under the new development pattern.It is helpful to make full use of the role of ETR policy in adjusting the benefit distribution of different regions and the consumption welfare gap between different groups,and play its role in promoting foreign trade and expanding domestic demand,thus realizing China's high-standard opening up and high-quality economic development.
万方数据
维普
