In 2023,there is a significant misalignment in the monetary policy cycles between China and the United States.In this round of monetary policy cycles,the Federal Reserve has made an abrupt shift from a quantitative easing monetary policy to tightening monetary policy in order to address the issue of high inflation in the United States,entering a cycle of interest rate hikes.In contrast,the People's Bank of China(PBC)has maintained a prudent monetary policy,with the overall monetary policy currently in a cycle of interest rate cuts.International monetary policy coordination refers to the discussions and formulations of monetary policies and corresponding measures by various national monetary authorities to maximize benefits or minimize losses against the backdrop of deepening economic globalization and increasing spillover effects of economic policies.Based on simplifying Carl Walsh policy coordination model and constructing game theory analysis framework,we can find that loss function of two-country monetary policy coordination is smaller than that of two-country monetary policy incoordination.Therefore,monetary policy coordination between China and the U.S.can achieve Pareto improvement.China and the U.S.can coordinate their monetary policies by making full use of current international monetary policy coordination mechanism.At the same time,these two countries can promote reform of current international cooperation mechanism,in order to remove obstacles to the coordination of monetary policies between China and the U.S.on current international cooperation platform.In addition,China and the U.S.can also work together with other major countries to establish a coordination mechanism for unconventional monetary policies,which is meaningful in the context of the increasing normalization of unconventional monetary policies.
关键词
货币政策/博弈论框架/帕累托改进/协调机制
Key words
Monetary policy/Game theory framework/Pareto improvement/Coordination mechanism
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