As an important symbol of the imbalance of the global population structure,the scope and extent of ageing has been compared with the important social changes such as industrialization and urbanization.As a member of emerging markets,with the deepening of population ageing,China's quantitative demographic divi-dend effect has declined.The severe distortion of the population structure has brought a series of impacts to the sustainable development of social economy.This paper utilizes panel data from provinces and municipalities in China to construct an expanded Cobb-Douglas production function model and empirically study the economic effects of population aging from both static and dynamic perspectives.The results indicate that in the short term,the rapid growth of the elderly population changes the incentive for the labor force and forms a second demo-graphic dividend,thereby stimulating economic growth.In the long term,as the elderly dependency ratio rapidly rises,the negative impacts on economic and social aspects will continue to expand,and the proportion of the labor force has a greater negative effect on economic development compared to the elderly dependency ratio.The country should actively adopt effective measures in terms of economic development mode,fertility policies,elderly industries,pension security,and service systems to address the challenges posed by population aging.
关键词
人口老龄化/经济效应/老年抚养比/劳动力人口占比/第二次人口红利
Key words
Population ageing/Economic development/Aged-dependency ratio/Second demographic dividend
维普
万方数据