This paper employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR)that includes stochastic fluctuations to focus on the time-varying impact characteristics of population aging on the macroeconomic regulation capacity of monetary policy in China.Based on the important role of the credit transmission channel of monetary policy in China,and using the CC-LM model as a theoretical basis,the paper analyzes the impact of aging on the monetary policy credit transmission mechanism.The results from the time-varying parameter VAR model indicate that population aging reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy in China,specifically manifested as aging suppressing the regulatory effects of quantity-based and price-based policy tools on economic growth and inflation.Population aging negatively affects both the bank credit supply and corporate credit financing,weakening the effectiveness of the monetary policy credit channel,and this conclusion remains valid even after changing the measurement indicators for population aging.This paper argues that the formulation and decision-making of monetary policy in China should fully consider the factor of population aging,and that the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation in the context of aging can be enhanced through a richer policy mix and reforms to the credit transmission mechanism.
关键词
人口老龄化/货币政策效果/信贷传导/TVP-VAR模型/系统GMM估计
Key words
Population aging/Effectiveness of monetary policy/Credit transmission/TVP-VAR model/System GMM estimation
万方数据