首页|结合存流量观点看汇率与国内经济的关系——基于灰色关联分析

结合存流量观点看汇率与国内经济的关系——基于灰色关联分析

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
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研究运用灰色关联度模型,从侧重于短期效益的汇率流量理论出发,分析各变量与汇率之间的相互作用,并对比汇率与国内经济各因素之间互相影响程度,以克服国际收支说在各因素关系上的短板.同时,结合长期效应分析的汇率存量理论,综合存流量的观点分析近几年人民币汇率与中国宏观经济的关系.研究发现,人民币汇率与国内利率、价格水平间为强关联关系且与利率的关联度极强,而汇率与国民收入则为中度关联关系.据此,应利用好中国低通胀率的环境,搭配利率与汇率政策,以促进我国经济稳健恢复,改善我国贸易平衡.同时,在当前日益复杂的国际关系格局中,也不能忽视在汇率作用下的国际贸易和吸引外资方面对国民收入和经济发展的潜在或间接影响力.
The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Domestic Economy from the Perspective of Stock and Flow:Based on Grey Relation Analysis
Based on the exchange rate flow theory focusing on short-term benefits,the study uses the grey correlation model to explore the interaction between variables and the exchange rate,and compares the interaction between the exchange rate and various factors of the domestic economy,so as to overcome the shortcomings of the balance of payments theory in the relationship between various factors.At the same time,the study analyzes the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's macro-economy in recent years by combining the stock theory of exchange rate in long-term effect analysis and the view of stock and flow.It is found that the RMB exchange rate has a strong correlation with domestic interest rate and price level,and an extremely strong correlation with interest rate,while the exchange rate has a moderate correlation with national income.Therefore,it is advisable to make good use of China's low inflation environment,and the policy of interest rate and exchange rate should be combined to promote China's steady economic recovery and improve trade balance.Meanwhile,in the current increasingly complex international relations,the potential or indirect influence of international trade and foreign investment under the effect of exchange rate on national income and economic development cannot be ignored.

exchange rate determination theorymacro-economygrey correlation modelinternational financebalance of payments theory

陈淼、林正

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广东财经大学财政税务学院,广东广州 510320

汇率决定论 宏观经济 灰色关联度模型 国际金融 国际收支说

2021年国家社科基金项目2023年广东省自然科学基金项目2023广东省社科共建项目

21BJ1052023A1515012398GD23XYJ09

2024

金融理论与教学
哈尔滨金融学院

金融理论与教学

CHSSCD
影响因子：0.308
ISSN：1004-9487
年,卷(期)：2024.42(1)
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