首页|互联网理财、财富效应与居民消费——来自互联网平台居民理财行为的微观证据

互联网理财、财富效应与居民消费——来自互联网平台居民理财行为的微观证据

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随着金融科技迅速发展,可充分挖掘并发挥互联网理财推动居民消费增长、扩大内需方面作用.本文基于经典财富效应理论,从支付宝平台随机抽取约3万个活跃用户的理财行为数据,实证分析互联网理财对居民消费的影响.结果表明:①互联网理财投资收益能够有效促进居民消费,具有显著的财富效应,且此效应在电商消费层面更为显著.基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)的交叉验证结果表明,该结论具有较强的稳健性;②中介机制分析表明,互联网理财主要通过优化收入结构来促进居民消费;③互联网理财的财富效应并不存在明显的下沉效应;④互联网理财能够提高居民发展享受型消费在电商消费中的占比,显著推动居民消费结构升级.本文为进一步优化收入结构、促进居民消费升级,提供了有益的经验证据和政策启示.
Online Wealth Management,Wealth Effect,and Consumption:Evidence from the Internet Platform Users'Wealth Management Behavior
Against the backdrop of a sluggish global economy and pervasive uncertainties,understanding the micro-decision-making mechanism of residents'consumption is critical to unleash consumption potential,promote consumption upgrades,stimulate domestic demand,and foster high-quality economic development.Financial investment serves as a pivotal tool for consumers to smooth consumption throughout their lives.Premised on financial market frictions,investment income from financial assets emerges as a significant source of property income,demonstrating a greater marginal propensity to consume compared with wage and household business incomes,thereby inducing a wealth effect.With the popularization of mobile Internet and the rapid development of digital finance,residents increasingly engage with online wealth management products via Fintech platforms,facilitating their participation in financial markets and accumulation of property income.Based on the classical wealth effect theory,this study randomly selects the financial behavior and consumption behavior data of about 30,000 active users from a unicorn-level Fintech platform in China-Alipay-and analyzes the impact of online wealth management on residents'consumption expenditure and consumption structure.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Online wealth management investment income significantly promotes residents'consumption,especially e-commerce consumption.This may be by allowing consumers to quickly switch between wealth management and e-commerce apps through smartphones,and through shortening the time lag of the conversion of online wealth management investment income into consumption.After resolving the potential endogeneity problem using the DML model and by using consumption expenditure growth rate as the explained variable,the empirical results still show that online wealth management investment income significantly promotes household consumption,especially e-commerce consumption.(2)As the sample comes from a Fintech platform and does not represent participants in the wider economy and society,to verify the robustness and reliability of the benchmark results we further use data from the China Household Financial Survey 2019(CHFS-2019)for cross-validation.The empirical results still verify that online wealth management investment income significantly promotes household consumption expenditure,especially e-commerce consumption,indicating that the wealth effect of online wealth management is robust.Furthermore,the results of intermediary mechanism analysis show that online wealth management investment income promotes residents'consumption by optimizing the income structure.(3)Focusing on the extent of the wealth effect among the sinking population,when the explained variable is consumption expenditure,the coefficient of the interaction between online wealth management investment income and the degree of sinking changes from negative to positive as the degree of sinking increases,but the change is not significant.Therefore,the wealth effect of online wealth management does not have a significant sinking effect.(4)To further promote high-quality development,it is necessary not only to effectively improve residents'consumption expenditure but also to upgrade their consumption structure.Based on this,we further study the impact of online wealth management investment income on the upgrading of residents'consumption structure from a structural perspective.The results show that online wealth management investment income has a significant promoting effect on residents'expenditure on various goods on e-commerce platforms,and it has a particularly significant positive impact on the proportion of development and leisure consumption,which helps to promote the upgrading of residents'consumption structure.Compared with previous studies,the possible marginal contributions of this article are as follows.(1)Based on micro-data,namely individuals'monthly online wealth management and consumption behavior on a unicorn-level Fintech platform,the study verifies the wealth effect of online wealth management and further explores the heterogeneity of this effect among sinking groups such as rural residents,people in western regions,and residents in third-tier cities.(2)The study expands the research perspective on the wealth effect of online wealth management from that of consumption expenditure to that of consumption structure,and explores the heterogeneous impact of online wealth management investment income on basic,development,and leisure consumption,providing useful empirical evidence to further standardize the development of online wealth management in its current development stage and promote the upgrading of residents'consumption.(3)The study uses CHFS-2019 data to conduct cross-validation on the wealth effect of online wealth management,and further reveals the mechanism by which online wealth management promotes consumption,i.e.,by optimizing residents'income structure.

Online Wealth ManagementIncome StructureWealth Effecte-Commerce ConsumptionConsumption Upgrade

杨雅鑫、宋科、张劲帆

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中国人民大学国际货币研究所/新加坡国立大学房地产研究院,北京 117602

中国人民大学财政金融学院/中国财政金融政策研究中心/金融科技研究所,北京 100872

香港中文大学(深圳)经济管理学院/中国人民大学国际货币研究所,深圳 518040

互联网理财 收入结构 财富效应 电商消费 消费升级

国家社科基金重大项目国家自然科学基金项目

21&ZD11671733004

2024

金融研究
中国金融学会

金融研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.047
ISSN:1002-7246
年,卷(期):2024.(1)