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电压波动下智慧光伏场站最大发电量预测仿真

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智慧光伏场站输出电压的稳定性对电网的整体运行至关重要。而电压与气象因素(如太阳辐射、温度等)产生耦合效应,使得其波动具有随机性,增加了发电量预测的复杂性,降低了预测的准确性。为此,提出考虑电压波动的智慧光伏场站最大发电量预测方法。采用AdaBoost算法和SVM算法相结合的方式对电压波动类型展开分类处理,获取不同天气状态下的电压波动情况。引入深度信念网络,将电压波动类型分类结果作为预测模型的输入特征,在电压存在波动的情况下展开智慧光伏场站最大发电量预测,以适应电压波动随机性,提高预测准确性。经过大量实验测试表明,所提方法具有更好的智慧光伏场站最大发电量预测效果,可以全面推动清洁能源技术的持续发展和应用。
Preast Simulation of Maximum Power Generation of Smart Photovoltaic Station Under Voltage Fluctuation
The stability of the output voltage of smart photovoltaic stations is critical to the overall operation of the power grid.The coupling effect of voltage and meteorological factors(such as solar radiation,temperature,etc.)makes its fluctuations random,increasing the complexity of power generation forecasting and reducing the accuracy of fore-casting.Therefore,a prediction method for maximum power generation of smart photovoltaic stations considering voltage fluctuation is proposed.The combination of the AdaBoost algorithm and SVM algorithm is used to classify and process the types of voltage fluctuations,and obtain the voltage fluctuations under different weather conditions.The deep belief network is introduced,and the classification results of voltage fluctuation types are taken as the input char-acteristics of the prediction model.In the case of voltage fluctuations,the maximum power generation of smart photo-voltaic stations is predicted to adapt to the randomness of voltage fluctuations and improve the prediction accuracy.A large number of experimental tests show that the proposed method has a better prediction effect on the maximum power generation of smart photovoltaic stations,and can comprehensively promote the sustainable development and application of clean energy technology.

Voltage fluctuationSmart photovoltaic stationsMaximum power generation forecastDeep belief net-work

刘文杰、高立明、王宇、秦程

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国家电投集团沧州新能源发电有限公司,河北 沧州 061000

电压波动 智慧光伏场站 最大发电量预测 深度信念网络

2024

计算机仿真
中国航天科工集团公司第十七研究所

计算机仿真

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.518
ISSN:1006-9348
年,卷(期):2024.41(11)