基于比例风险模型的飞机部件剩余寿命预测
Remaining lifetime prediction for aircraft components based on proportional hazard model
何浪 1鲁亮 1陆锦鹤 2范圣娴 2赵立新 2张宇翔1
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航大学计算机科学与技术学院,天津 300300
- 2. 北京飞机维修工程有限公司 附件/起落架大修产品事业部,北京 100621
- 折叠
摘要
为准确预测飞机部件的剩余寿命,在对某航空公司最近4年的163架波音B737 NG型号飞机的维修数据进行分析的基础上,提出基于比例风险模型的飞机部件剩余寿命预测方法.通过估计部件装拆间隔飞行时间对应的寿命分布,计算部件在当前时刻对应的可靠度;对部件的维修数据进行分析,筛选出影响部件寿命的主要因素;据此预测部件的剩余寿命.通过实例分析,部件的累计飞行时间、飞机的机龄以及飞机的运行环境等均为影响部件寿命的重要因素.实验结果表明,基于比例风险模型的预测结果较其它预测模型在3个评价指标上均取得了最好效果.
Abstract
To accurately predict the remaining life of aircraft components,a method for predicting the remaining life of aircraft components based on a proportional hazard model was proposed based on the analysis of maintenance data of 163 Boeing B737 NG model aircraft of an airline for the last four years.By estimating the life distribution corresponding to the flight time of the com-ponent assembly and disassembly interval,the reliability of the component at the current moment was calculated,and the main factors affecting the lifetime of each component were selected through the analysis of the maintenance data,and the remaining life of the component was predicted.Through example analysis,factors such as the cumulative flight time of the components,the age of the aircraft and the operating environment of the aircraft are all important factors that affect the lifetime of the compo-nents.Experimental results show that the prediction results based on the proportional hazards model achieve the best results in three evaluation indicators compared with other prediction models.
关键词
比例风险模型/可靠性分析/特征选择/比例风险假设检验/剩余寿命/飞机部件/维修预测Key words
proportional hazard model/reliability analysis/feature selection/proportional hazard model hypothesis test/remai-ning life/aircraft components/maintenance prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金民航联合基金项目(U1933114)
天津市教委科研计划基金项目(2021KJ046)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据